Saturday’s Penn State-Michigan game will be the first since 2020 in which both teams are unranked in the AP Top 25 poll. That year, the 1-5 Nittany Lions went to Ann Arbor and defeated 2-4 Michigan 27-17.
This weekend’s matchup does have higher stakes, however, as first-year Big Ten head coaches Matt Campbell and Kyle Whittingham search for their first conference win. The Wolverines, hypothetically, could still make the College Football Playoff, too, if they win out.
How does Campbell storm out of Michigan Stadium with his first signature win as the Nittany Lions' head coach? Here are three matchups that will decide Saturday’s game for Penn State.
Penn State’s offensive creativity vs. Michigan's defense
Michigan’s defense is about as stingy as it gets. The Wolverines allow the third-fewest yards per game nationally (241.4) behind Notre Dame and North Dakota State, specifically shutting down the opposition's air attack. Michigan surrenders the fifth-fewest passing yards per game (146.8), 3.1 yards less than Penn State, which allows the sixth-fewest (149.8).
So Penn State offensive coordinator Taylor Mouser must get creative, especially if the Nittany Lions’ run game is subpar again. Whether that’s calling trick plays, more motions or something else, Mouser will have to facilitate his best game of the season from the press box if his team wants to come out of Ann Arbor victorious.
Michigan’s defense is more middle of the pack on third downs (32.4 percent conversion rate allowed), so maybe Mouser’s creativity should come on first down to give Penn State more manageable third downs.
Penn State’s run defense vs. Michigan’s rushing offense
Michigan’s rush offense is the lowest-ranked Penn State will see thus far in Big Ten play. The Wolverines rank 13th in the conference in rushing yards per game (135) and yards per attempt (3.8). The caveat: the Nittany Lions’ run defense has been abysmal in conference play and is the second-worst in the Big Ten, allowing 165.8 yards per game.
With how strong the Nittany Lions’ cornerback room is, led by redshirt senior Audavion Collins and sophomore Daryus Dixson, it’s vital that they make Michigan quarterback Bryce Underwood beat them Saturday.
Penn State should stack the box in Ann Arbor, limit the damage on the ground and make Underwood, who’s coming off his worst game of the season (101 yards, two interceptions) against Minnesota, be the difference at Michigan Stadium. They could probably live with that if it happens.
The turnover battle
The winning script is there for Penn State. Michigan is 17th in the Big Ten in turnover margin (-4), while the Nittany Lions are third (+5).
Underwood has struggled to hold onto the ball this season, throwing four interceptions, including three in his last two games. Michigan also has fumbled seven times, losing five. If the Nittany Lions can hold onto the football and force turnovers, the game will be there for the taking.
The Wolverines have turned the ball over nine times this season compared to Penn State’s four. While he hasn’t played as advertised this season, Nittany Lions quarterback Rocco Becht has done a decent job at keeping the ball out of harm's way.
Most notably, though, the Penn State running back room has combined for 688 career carries and has yet to lose a fumble.
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