Earlier this month, the San Diego Padres were eliminated from the National League Division Series in heartbreaking fashion at the hands of the Milwaukee Brewers. After Milwaukee swept the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL Championship Series, they now find themselves in the World Series against the Tampa Bay Rays.
Between balls being hit off the roof at American Family Field and near home runs to tie the game, it was an unprecedented series between the Padres and Brewers. But at the end of the day, the 103-win Brewers were the better team.
The Brewers out-hit the Padres when it came to runners in scoring position, doing so at a .229 clip compared to San Diego's .174. In terms of relief pitching, something that the Padres dominated over the regular season, the two appeared to be much further.
In those four NLDS games, the Padres relief crew combined for a 2.75 ERA to the Brewers' 0.47 mark.
Perhaps the reason why the bullpen showed more signs of cracking in October can be linked back to the regular season. Padres starting pitchers accounted for the the fourth-fewest innings in baseball throughout the 162-game season.
Through the postseason thus far, the Rays not only have the most innings logged by their starters, but own a 1.98 ERA, the lowest among any playoff team.
Short starts by starting pitchers didn't appear to be as big of an issue when the Padres offense started to heat up in the second half of the season, and the bullpen continued to dominate with a 3.53 ERA (fifth-lowest in MLB). Those differences between a team currently in the Fall Classic and one who started their offseason early started to present themselves at the worst time possible.
Thus, the starting pitching issue needs to be resolved this offseason.
Almost every pitcher in the Padres 2026 starting rotation is set to enter free agency, and president of baseball operations AJ Preller has a clear opportunity to change it for the better.
The ace of the rotation, Michael King, had another dominant season on the mound with a 3.21 ERA, and tossed a career-high 185 innings and bWAR of 4.3. He is expected to decline his $28 million player option this offseason, but it doesn't rule out drawing up a new contract to keep him in San Diego.
Nick Pivetta, who had a solid 2.87 ERA season in 2025 but was injured for most of 2026 (2.86 ERA in eight starts), has a $14 million club option that could be picked up. Lucas Giolito and Griffin Canning, who have mutual options, are not expected to return.
This leaves Walker Buehler, Robbie Ray and Casey Mize, but Buehler's clear improvement in the second half along with Ray and Mize's abysmal performances since being traded to the Padres will likely not be enough for a reunion.
Right-hander Joe Musgrove, who didn't make his season debut until the wild-card round, had a 3.88 ERA during his last healthy season in 2024.
There are certainly the right pieces in place to have a strong rotation whenever the 2027 starts, but the front office must work to address their biggest flaw in order to get back to the postseason — and then make a deeper run.
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