Dave Roberts Won’t Bench Shohei Ohtani, and It Could Cost the Dodgers Their Season

It’s time for the Dodgers to do the unthinkable. 

In May, it appeared superstar Shohei Ohtani was well on the way to his fifth MVP award and fourth in a row. Heck, he might have been a contender for his first Cy Young if all went well. Meanwhile, the Dodgers looked as dominant as ever and were favored to win a third straight World Series title. 

What a difference a few months can make. 

Fast forward to mid-October, and Los Angeles trails the Brewers 2–0 in the National League championship series. The face of its franchise has been a shell of himself for months. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts announced Tuesday that Ohtani would remain in the lineup for Game 3. That’s a mistake that could end the Dodgers’ season. 

During the Dodgers’ 7–4 loss in Game 2 of the NLCS on Monday night, Ohtani looked lost at the plate. He went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts as he struggled to catch up to mid-90s fastballs and chased breaking pitches nowhere near the strike zone. 

In the first inning, Milwaukee starter Logan Henderson blew three 94 mph fastballs by him for a strikeout. In his next at-bat, Ohtani managed a meek 67.6 mph groundout to third. JoJo Romero got him swinging on an 85 mph sweeper that was a foot out of the zone. In the ninth inning, all Ohtani could muster was an 86.2 mph flyout to left. 

What happened Monday night wasn’t just an off night. It’s who Ohtani has been for months.

Knee and arm injuries have forced the 32-year-old superstar from the mound for the rest of the season, and they may be hampering him at the plate, too. Ohtani hasn’t homered since Aug. 18 at Coors Field. In the 24 games since, he has slashed .156/.269/.200 with 14 walks and 36 strikeouts. He has just three extra-base hits in that span, and none in the postseason. Perhaps most alarming is his astronomical 34.0% strikeout rate, nearly nine percentage points higher than his career average (25.4%). 

As Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci pointed out, Ohtani hasn’t been engaging his lower half for weeks and is struggling to turn on pitches. He hasn’t pulled a ball for an extra-base hit since Aug. 26, and the Brewers have been attacking him with elevated fastballs and breaking pitches out of the zone. 

Ohtani’s track record makes benching him feel impossible. A year ago, he dominated the postseason, emerging as the NL’s best hitter while tying for the MLB lead with eight home runs, slugging .691 and posting a 1.096 OPS. He almost single-handedly eliminated Milwaukee in Game 4 of the NLCS when he threw six shutout innings and blasted three home runs. Removing that guy from the lineup feels wrong for so many reasons, but L.A. has to live in the present.

Given the length of his slump and the injuries he’s been dealing with, it’s hard to see Ohtani turning this around in the next few games. The Dodgers don’t have the luxury of waiting for him to find himself again. They’re two losses away from elimination, and the Brewers smell blood in the water. That’s why Roberts should have elected to sit his superstar—though it now feels unrealistic given the front they presented Tuesday in a press conference together.

Rookie Josue De Paula would make the most sense as a replacement for Ohtani at designated hitter. The 21-year-old’s left-handed bat carried him quickly through the Dodgers’ system before he reached the majors in September. In an 11-game regular season audition, De Paula was 10-for-31 with one home run, three doubles and a triple, slashing .323/.500/.581. In three postseason plate appearances, he is 0-for-1 with two walks. It’s a small sample size, but we’ve seen him rake in the minor leagues for years, and he’s never produced a full-season wRC+ below 130. 

While Ohtani has struggled against fastballs, De Paula produced an xBA of .328 against them during the regular season. He also had a strikeout rate of 11.9% and a walk rate of 26.2% after debuting. At Double A this season, he struck out in just 14.8% of his plate appearances and walked in 13.8% over 124 games. That’s the kind of disciplined approach the Dodgers need right now.

Yes, replacing the greatest player on the planet with a 21-year-old rookie in the middle of the NLCS would represent a big risk. But the Dodgers should make a decision based on the player Ohtani is right now, not who he has been for years. 

Roberts has decided to stick with Ohtani. With the Dodgers’ season on the line, the biggest risk may be refusing to make a change.