Yaakov Lappin is an Israel-based military affairs correspondent and analyst. He is the in-house analyst at the Miryam Institute; a research associate at the Alma Research and Education Center; and a research associate at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University. He is a frequent guest commentator on international television news networks, including Sky News and i24 News. Lappin is the author of Virtual Caliphate: Exposing the Islamist State on the Internet. Follow him at: www.patreon.com/yaakovlappin.
(Oct. 22, 2026 / JNS)
The IDF ordered a series of heightened readiness measures in recent days ahead of Israel’s 26th Knesset election on Oct. 27, after Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir held a multi-front situational assessment on the military’s preparations for the election period.
During the meeting earlier this week, Zamir was joined by the heads of the Operations and Intelligence directorates and the commanders of the Northern, Central, Southern and Home Front commands, according to an IDF statement.
“The Chief of the General Staff emphasized that the IDF’s mission is to enable the democratic elections to take place safely and as scheduled,” the statement said, adding that Zamir stressed that the military “remains on the highest state of alert and will maintain a high level of vigilance and readiness across all fronts.”
Military sources declined to provide further information on intelligence assessments regarding potential Iranian plots to disrupt the election.
Defense Minister Israel Katz warned during a speech at a combat officers’ graduation course in Mitzpe Ramon in southern Israel on Wednesday: “In recent days, we identify attempts by our enemies, led by Iran and its proxies, to advance terror attacks to influence the election results in Israel. The Iranian regime is at its weakest point ever, and we identify that this weakness could lead it to take the most extreme steps against the State of Israel.”
He added, “If Iran attacks Israel—Iran will burn.”
Maj. (res.) Alexander Grinberg, an Iran expert at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security and a former member of the IDF Military Intelligence Research Department, told JNS that the IDF’s heightened posture reflects lessons learned and applied.
“I think what we’re seeing here is lessons being learned and actually applied in the way the IDF is conducting its defensive preparations, in plain language,” Grinberg said. “I’m not aware of any special intention by the Iranians or by the proxies to carry out some kind of showcase operation on the eve of the elections in Israel, for the simple reason that they simply can’t. That doesn’t mean they don’t want to.
“They have far more internal pressure inside Iran right now than any incentive to try to surprise us. But this is a line of thinking the military cannot rely on. The military has to be arrayed and ready for every scenario.”
Grinberg said Iran’s relative public restraint in recent weeks reflects a calculated change in behavior.
“The reason the Iranians aren’t issuing threatening declarations like they used to is that, despite all their defeats, they are well aware—unlike us—of the price of words,” he said. “They understand very well that making threats that aren’t backed up is like writing a bad check. No one takes it seriously, and they understand that if they can’t deliver, it’s better for them to refrain.”
At the same time, Grinberg cautioned against assuming Iran’s setbacks on the battlefield translate into weakness across the board.
“If Iran has suffered defeat on the battlefield, it is very far from being defeated in the political campaign, because information warfare, manipulation and sowing chaos are things Iran and Russia specialize in, and they are far better at it than we are,” he said.
He pointed to what he described as an Iranian hand behind unrest in France, where French intelligence has reportedly flagged an Iranian signature, and organized protests across Europe tied to Azerbaijan’s hijab law, which he said Iranian agents orchestrated to counter Baku’s efforts to curb Tehran’s influence.
On the question of regime stability, Grinberg said: “I’m not sure that if we land another blow, the regime will fall. The regime is like a mafia, a cartel, like an upgraded drug cartel. Simply because it’s a mafia, you can’t topple it easily, but you can cut off its arms. You can’t crush the octopus, but you can cut off its tentacles.”
Grinberg assessed that a ballistic missile strike timed to coincide with the election would expose Iranian military assets and carry significant strategic risks for Tehran.
“If you launch a ballistic strike at Israel, you inevitably have to expose some launcher, some launch site, which we would identify and hit back,” he said. “That could work only if they do something truly reckless, firing everything they have left to cause us real damage, while betting that the Americans would pressure us not to retaliate. That’s hard to believe, so this scenario is probably far-fetched.”
Troop leave frozen
As part of the military’s heightened alert, Zamir ordered a freeze on leave across IDF units effective Thursday, “subject to ongoing situational assessments.”
He also increased the presence of senior commanders in command centers and headquarters and directed that IDF Central Command be reinforced with the Paratroopers Brigade headquarters and additional forces.
Additional soldiers were allocated to other fronts “in the air, at sea, and on land,” according to operational requirements.
“Over the past week, we have strengthened our defenses and reinforced our troops across all arenas, and we are maintaining a high level of alertness and readiness,” Zamir said.
Hegseth’s visit
Against that backdrop, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reportedly made an unannounced visit to Israel on Oct. 19, arriving on an unmarked military transport aircraft.
Hegseth held roughly 90 minutes of talks at Ovda Air Base in the southern Negev with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Katz and National Security Council chief Shmuel Ben Ezra.
During the visit, Hegseth met with U.S. troops stationed at Ovda Air Base under U.S. Central Command’s area of responsibility and was photographed alongside American personnel.
On Tuesday, Netanyahu told i24News that there were “signs that the Iranians will initiate an action in the coming days in various arenas.”
Regarding the campaign against Tehran’s nuclear program, Netanyahu said, “Trump and I will act together and finish this story.”
He added: “Iran will not possess nuclear weapons. I warn Iran and Hezbollah: Do not dare attack us.”