KUALA LUMPUR: Perlis could be heading towards another change of menteri besar or even a snap state election, as the suspension of Abu Bakar Hamzah threatens to reignite the Pas-Bersatu power struggle.
Political analysts said the latest turmoil had exposed unresolved tensions dating back to last December's leadership crisis, with the future of the state government hinging on whether Abu Bakar retains majority support.
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities director Associate Professor Dr Mazlan Ali said the latest developments could lead to another change of menteri besar or the dissolution of the state assembly.
He said the political crisis, which saw eight Perikatan Nasional (PN) assemblymen withdraw support for then-menteri besar Mohd Shukri Ramli, had left deep divisions between Pas and Bersatu.
"The three Pas assemblymen and five Bersatu assemblymen withdrew their support for the Pas menteri besar, and Abu Bakar was subsequently appointed to replace him.
"Pas viewed this as a betrayal because Bersatu was its political ally at the time, yet acted in a manner the party considered unacceptable," he told the New Straits Times.
Mazlan said Abu Bakar's suspension could stem from alleged breaches of Bersatu's internal regulations, although the precise reasons for the disciplinary action remained unclear.
He said the development should also be viewed against the wider breakdown in relations between Pas and Bersatu.
"The possibility of the menteri besar resigning or the state assembly being dissolved cannot be ruled out.
"I believe Pas has the political advantage because Abu Bakar's position has become uncertain following his suspension," he said.
He said Pas could potentially regain control of the state government if a fresh election were held.
He said that Pas currently held six seats in the state assembly, compared with Bersatu's five and Pakatan Harapan's one, with three seats vacant.
However, he said the party had so far refrained from challenging Abu Bakar's appointment, possibly out of respect for the Raja of Perlis, who had consented to his appointment.
Mazlan said the breakdown in Pas-Bersatu relations would be difficult to repair, particularly following PN's deregistration.
"The political compromise may no longer be sustainable following PN's deregistration.
"There is a possibility of the state assembly being dissolved or another change of menteri besar," he said.
Universiti Malaya sociopolitical analyst Professor Datuk Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi said the latest dispute showed that last December's leadership change had failed to resolve underlying disagreements between Pas and Bersatu.
"The issue should have been resolved with the appointment of a new menteri besar, but disputes over power-sharing and trust between the parties have persisted.
"It may be a leadership issue, but I believe it is also linked to Pas-Bersatu relations and how these are managed in Perlis," he said.
Awang Azman, who is also a National Unity Advisory Council member, said Abu Bakar's political survival depended on his ability to retain majority support in the state assembly.
He said Pas had a numerical advantage over Bersatu but remained divided, making cooperation among its assemblymen crucial.
"Pas has a numerical advantage, but unfortunately, they are not united.
"If the Pas assemblymen can work together, they would have an advantage in choosing their own menteri besar.
"The question now is the relationship between the assemblymen, the Pas central leadership and the Raja of Perlis," he said.
He warned that a vote of no confidence could pose a greater threat to the state government's stability than Abu Bakar's suspension itself.
Meanwhile, International Islamic University Malaysia political scientist Associate Professor Dr Syaza Shukri said Abu Bakar's suspension should not be viewed solely as an internal
Bersatu disciplinary matter.
She said it also reflected the continuing struggle for political influence between Pas and Bersatu since the change of menteri besar in December 2025.
However, Syaza cautioned that the disciplinary action did not automatically remove Abu Bakar from office.
She said the crisis could result in a political compromise, a realignment of assembly support or another change of menteri besar.
She said the outcome would ultimately depend on political negotiations and the actual balance of support in the assembly.
The latest turmoil comes less than a year after Abu Bakar, the Kuala Perlis assemblyman, was sworn in as menteri besar on Dec 28, 2025, replacing Pas' Mohd Shukri.
The leadership change followed the reported withdrawal of support for Mohd Shukri by eight PN assemblymen, comprising five from Bersatu and three from Pas.
Pas subsequently terminated the membership of the three assemblymen, and their seats were declared vacant.
Bersatu suspended Abu Bakar's membership rights for two party election terms, effective Oct 13.
The action was reportedly taken after he breached Clause 9.1.4 of the party constitution and its Code of Ethics and Conduct.
The latest development also comes after the Registrar of Societies cancelled PN's registration on Oct 20.
© New Straits Times Press (M) Bhd