You could argue that the biggest question of the weekend resides in Ann Arbor.
As in, what if Tommy Carr is that guy?
As in, that guy who stares down the defending champs in his first career start and becomes one of the key figures of this chaotic, we-know-nothing 2026 season.
We do know that Carr will get his first career start on Saturday when Michigan hosts No. 6 Indiana at noon ET. What we don't know is how he'll perform against an Indiana team who ranks in the top 7 in FBS in both scoring defense (No. 4) and yards per play allowed (No. 7).
All we can do is attempt to look into the crystal ball.
In some ways, IU shouldn't assume too much about Carr based on the Penn State game
Wait a minute. Why would we do that? Didn't Carr come in the second half and lead a trio of touchdown drives to help Michigan avoid what would've been a devastating third loss? You bet. And aren't those his only meaningful reps at the college level? Indeed.
But let's remember that Penn State likely didn't spend all week prepping for the Carr version of the Michigan offense. Even if Matt Campbell's staff assumed that the true freshman could get some run, it's entirely different to react to that within a game as opposed to having a week to prep, as IU did.
Let's also remember that Penn State's defense has been, um, "vulnerable" this season.
Specifically, it's been vulnerable against the run, which is why it ranks No. 103 in FBS in that department. That's the byproduct of allowing 176 yards to Temple, as well as a 413-yard night that it surrendered to Chip Kelly's Northwestern rushing attack.
Michigan's 211 rushing yards on 6.0 yards per carry against Penn State made life easier on Carr. Did it help that Penn State actually had to respect Carr's ability to throw in ways that it didn't when Bryce Underwood was in the game? Probably, but a vulnerable unit got gashed.
Tommy Carr sends The Big House into a frenzy! pic.twitter.com/E49q3EA6er
— CBS Sports College Football 🏈 (@CBSSportsCFB) October 17, 2026
That's worth keeping in mind because for the majority of the season, IU's run defense hasn't been vulnerable at all. That included holding the aforementioned Northwestern to 32 rushing yards.
In fact, the opener against North Texas was the only time a team averaged more than 3.3 yards per carry against the Hoosiers.
You get what I'm saying. An IU defense that ranks No. 2 in FBS in yards/rush allowed will put more pressure on Carr to make plays in the passing game than Penn State did.
Speaking of pressure, Carr has one career drop-back against pressure (via PFF). To his credit, he delivered an on-target throw to his tight end that went for 22 yards. That was also his lone drop-back against the blitz.
If I had to guess, I'd say that Carr will face multiple pressured drop-backs and multiple blitzes from the Bryant Haines defense, which most recently pressured Julian Sayin 12 times and got three sacks before he left the game with an injury.
Can Haines confuse Carr?
The obvious answer to that question is "yes." One would assume that the Broyles Award winner will throw some looks at a true freshman quarterback that will be met with confusion.
The better question is can IU capitalize when those opportunities are created?
Carr has neither taken a sack nor attempted a throwaway yet. Shoot, he hasn't even been forced to scramble yet.
He has already shown, however, that he can be effective on designed runs. Those four instances against Penn State accounted for 35 yards, including a 12-yard touchdown that put the game on ice.
It's not far-fetched to think that the quarterback-designed run game will be part of Michigan's offensive game plan, especially knowing that IU struggled to slow down Anthony Colandrea in a thriller at Nebraska.
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) October 10, 2026
Carr taking a page out of Colandrea's playbook — he used his legs effectively and converted manageable third downs — is his path to success against Haines and Co.
IU was somewhat reluctant to blitz Colandrea out of fear that he could diagnose pressure and find a quick running lane without second-level help. Blitzing him at a 36% clip didn't yield the success IU hoped for that day. He's also a more experienced quarterback than Carr.
When IU did see an inexperienced quarterback post-Sayin injury in the fourth quarter against Ohio State, it blitzed on three of Luke Fahey's four drop-backs.
Make of that what you will. Clearly, Haines wanted to see the freshman have to make quick decisions late in a tight game against a veteran defense.
Blitzing 75% of the time against Carr isn't realistic, but nobody would be surprised if IU followed a similar path early to rattle the freshman. Seeing how he handles that first couple of drives — one would think he'll handle it better than Underwood with his 56.2 NFL QB rating vs. the blitz — will determine those adjustments.
All signs point to Michigan leaning into its own midseason adjustment by going all in with Carr. It'll be his first time facing a unit like this. IU will also be tasked with diagnosing those strengths and weaknesses as they unfold in real time.
A unique task awaits both sides. The answer to that all-important question might have a massive say in the race to Indianapolis.
IU will only get there if it prevents Carr from being that guy.
Add us as a preferred source on Google