BRASILIA, Oct 22 - Rony Amaral, 71, is terrified right-wing Brazilian presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro will slash healthcare and pension spending if he wins Sunday's runoff vote, so he is supporting leftist Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva instead.
Amaral and his 91-year-old mother Aisa form part of a growing cohort of voters in fast-ageing Brazil who could play a decisive role in the razor-tight election.
Since 2010, the number of voters over 60 has grown by 74%, according to IBGE, the government statistics agency, and they today make up nearly 25% of Brazil's electorate, increasing their political weight.
Polls show a growing share of them support Lula, who has overseen one of the largest and most generous welfare programs in Brazil's history during his three presidential terms. He is neck and neck with Bolsonaro going into Sunday's vote.
"What I see is a fear among people over 60 that they will be left without care," Amaral said. "Even some on the right share this fear."
According to pollster Quaest, Lula leads among seniors with 48% of voting intention. It found 42% plan on voting for Bolsonaro, who scores less highly than his father, ex-President Jair Bolsonaro, did among the same demographic at this stage in the 2022 presidential election.
OVERLOOKED DEMOGRAPHIC
Despite their growing importance, seniors have traditionally been overlooked in Brazilian campaigns, said Cila Schulman, chief executive of polling firm Ideia.
Lula's campaign is now actively targeting the so-called "Lula generation" — seniors aged over 70, close in age to the 80-year-old president — hoping their support can help overcome the two-point gap between Bolsonaro and Lula in the first round.
The party has launched a website aimed at seniors with the aim of persuading more older voters to go to the polls.
"In the first round, I wasn't enthusiastic, but now that the race is so close, I'm going," said Ana dos Reis, 76, who lives in a low-income neighborhood in northern Sao Paulo. "Who knows, maybe my vote is what Lula needs to win?"
FEAR OF LOSING WELFARE GAINS
Unlike younger voters, who polls show tend to back Bolsonaro, older voters' support for Lula is linked to memories of improvements in living standards, including minimum wage hikes, investment in public health, and other benefits linked to Lula's earlier governments, Schulman said.
"It's a memory that younger people don't have," Schulman said.
Some seniors fear their benefits could diminish under a Bolsonaro government, since he is under pressure to trim Brazil's heavy public debt, and could target welfare spending.
Others are concerned about what a Bolsonaro win would mean for Brazilian democracy, remembering how supporters of former President Bolsonaro attacked government buildings in January 2023 after he lost to Lula in Brazil's last election, according to research from the leftist incumbent's Workers' Party, known as PT.
Near Manaus, in northern Brazil, Olga Darc Pimentel, 78, told Reuters she was deeply concerned by the runoff.
"We remember the terror of the pandemic here," Pimentel said, referring to the elder Bolsonaro's widely criticized handling of the coronavirus outbreak, adding that she plans to vote for Lula and is encouraging others to do the same.
Bolsonaro's campaign did not respond to requests for comment, but he can still count on plenty of elderly voters.
Isaltina Rosa Peixoto, 73, a retired civil servant, said she believes Bolsonaro will continue and refresh his father's legacy.
"I'm not afraid because I know he'll do what's best," she said at a pro-Bolsonaro rally in Rio de Janeiro. REUTERS