Winning the next election could be Labor's undoing

What if the worst thing that can happen to a political party is to win an election?

History is littered with unexpected wins — sweet victories — but are they really that sweet if they let a party overstay its welcome and trash its political capital and brand?

Scott Morrison's unexpected win in 2019 is an example. The Coalition cycled through three prime ministers and went to the election with a thin agenda. Morrison declared the result a miracle. Three years later, the party had trashed its political capital and lost the 2022 election.

John Howard's victory in 2004 is another example. An aging government secured a thumping win and with it, control of the Senate. The extraordinary power it had been handed gave it the freedom to introduce WorkChoices, an industrial relations overhaul that became a political millstone, leading to Kevin Rudd's win in 2007, an election that also cost Howard his own seat.

In 1993 Paul Keating won what he famously called "the sweetest victory of all", securing a fifth consecutive term for Labor against John Hewson's Coalition. Just three years later Labor was decimated, languishing in the political wilderness until 2007.

This is not to argue that the voters got it wrong. Voters always get it right. But rejecting the alternative is not the same as endorsing the status quo.

An extra term can delay the reckoning that forces renewal and an autopsy on a loss. Worse, it can breed a sense of invincibility that encourages leaders and senior ministers to believe their own hype, further detaching them from the issues affecting voters.

Reshuffle or revival

Speculation that Albanese is set to reshuffle his frontbench next year raises the question of whether he can avoid the fate of past governments. Another victory risks the government entering a third term without a clear agenda and renewed frontbench.

Albanese is an astute student of politics. He knows the danger of holding onto dead wood for too long.

The prime minister last week told me on Afternoon Briefing he was not "spooked" by the 24-hour news cycle and poor polls. But inside the government there is an emerging view that unless the government develops a better economic narrative, a reshuffle will not be enough to turn the ship around. Reports of frustration with Treasurer Jim Chalmers inside the Caucus and the prime minister's office are adding to the pressure.

Industry Minister Tim Ayres yesterday downplayed tensions between Anthony Albanese and Jim Chalmers, denying the prime minister is frustrated with the treasurer amid the fallout over the ATO credit card surcharge ban.

The pair spent last week fending off reports that Albanese rolled Chalmers when he told a business dinner he had agreed to intervene over the ATO credit card ban following a text message from ACCI chief executive Andrew McKellar.

Asked on News24 on Sunday whether the two men got along, Senator Ayres said: "This is a cabinet-style government that's working very well. It's stable."

"It's a real contrast to not just what's happening at the other end of the world, but a real contrast to what's happening on the other side of politics, which has been a total mess and has been since 2013," Senator Ayres said.

The credit card fiasco became murkier on Sunday after Assistant Treasurer Daniel Mulino conceded that the government knew in July that the Australian Taxation Office was considering stopping direct credit card payments in response to surcharge changes.

It gives more life to a story about the failure of the government to address a problem it saw coming but appeared to ignore without reading the obvious political ramifications.

Summer reset

Senior Labor MPs believe the summer provides a crucial opportunity to reset the government.

Feverish speculation that frontbenchers including Andrew Charlton, Jenny McAllister, Daniel Mulino and Kristy McBain may be elevated is not a coincidence. The government needs new energy and to make better use of its talent. There is a view that MPs who have been in the parliament since the Rudd/Gillard years need to step aside from the ministry to allow the government a proper refresh.

On June 17, 2008, retiring Nationals senator Sandy Macdonald reflected on the Howard government's defeat in his valedictory speech: "I do feel that governments sometimes win one election too many." He continued by arguing that Keating should not have won in 1993, before explaining that electorates eventually tire of governments and vote for change.

Political scientists Alfred Cuzán and Richard Heggen examined election results in Australia, Canada, Germany and the United States and identified what they called the cruise-and-crash model. Their finding was that incumbent parties can maintain relatively stable voting support across multiple elections before experiencing a concentrated loss at the election that removes them from office.

For Labor, scraping across the line at the next election can't be the only measure of success. It needs to deliver this term and go to the next election with a clear vision of what it will do next. Simply not being those opposite won't cut it.

Patricia Karvelas is host of ABC News Afternoon Briefing at 4pm weekdays on ABC News Channel, co-host of the weekly Party Room podcast with Fran Kelly and host of politics and news podcast Politics Now.