The most important question of the week comes from the Wall Street Journal editorial board. As usual, its headline gets straight to the point, asking, “Is New York stuck with Kathy Hochul?”
I winced, yet dared to hope the writers had found reasons why the answer to the question could be a resounding no.
They were not able to get completely there, but did cite key details about the vast decline of the Empire State on Hochul’s watch.
After noting that the population keeps shrinking, the editorial added, “Hochul’s New York has punitive taxes, a bloated welfare state, high utility costs, and too many failing schools.”
That litany is sad but true and yet, if public polls are right, voters are nonetheless ready to rehire Hochul for four more years on Nov. 3.
Searching for a reason to keep hope alive, I contacted her GOP opponent, Bruce Blakeman, and asked how he would answer the Journal’s question.
He didn’t hesitate or equivocate. Speaking by phone between campaign stops, he declared himself an optimist and insisted, “Our private polling shows we’re in a virtual dead heat.”
He has released some of those polls, which did show a much tighter race than public polls do, and says Hochul hasn’t released any of her internal surveys.
“She has to be seeing the same things we are,” Blakeman said. “People aren’t buying it anymore.
“She has been governor for five years, and New Yorkers are sophisticated enough to see what’s going on in our state, and that’s why we are going to shock the world with a big victory.”
Affordability
The Journal helps make his case about her tenure, especially on taxes. It cites the nonpartisan Tax Foundation, which puts New York at No. 50 among the states in overall competitiveness.
It ranks 47th worst for its high property taxes, 42nd for sales taxes and 50th for individual income taxes.
The editorial references the exorbitant top rates for both the city and state and observes that when combined with the top federal rate, the three levels of government take more than half of top earners’ income.
“Is it any wonder Florida’s 0% income tax looks attractive?” the paper asks.
The facts are grist for Blakeman, who believes “New Yorkers aren’t buying Hochul’s brand of leadership anymore” and says he is making the case that “the affordability problems people have are directly related to her polices.”
On top of the tax issues, he frequently raises the fact that New York’s utility rates are 70% above the national average.
As Ken Girardin, a fellow at the Manhattan Institute, recently wrote in The Post, Con Ed bills in the five boroughs are inflated because the city charges it exorbitant property taxes and allows the utility to pass on the cost to consumers, without explanation.
The Public Service Commission, which has criticized the practice, recently allowed the utility to itemize the property tax impact on customers’ “delivery charge,” a move that takes effect next year.
The issue aligns with Blakeman’s core agenda, which is, in his words, to deliver “lower taxes, lower utility rates and better safety from crime.”
At their lone debate, Blakeman, the Nassau County executive, was sharp and on offense, while Hochul did little more than blame President Trump for all that is wrong in the state and called her opponent a “Trump clone.”
Face Mam
Most of her TV and social media ads have stuck to that theme.
The argument is poll driven in that she hopes to tap into the president’s sinking popularity in New York and across the nation, much of it over the war in Iran.
Blakeman responds by saying, “Trump didn’t cause our problems with taxes and utility rates. Hochul did that.”
He also makes the logical point that if Trump’s policies were to blame, “all 50 states would be having the same problems, but they’re not. It’s her policies that are driving up taxes and utility rates here.”
In our call, he ticked off various regions of the state to argue that he’s gaining ground everywhere. He also raises the question about Hochul that Ronald Reagan used to great effect in his 1980 thumping of incumbent Jimmy Carter.
“Are you better off now than you were four years ago,” the Gipper asked at a debate, and it helped turn the tide in his favor, to where he won 44 states.
A unique element this year is Hochul’s relationship with Mayor Mamdani. She is playing the role of Big Sister by using state funds to pay for his free stuff agenda.
She also rushed the pied-à-terre tax through the Legislature, and its rollout has been a deserved black eye for her and Mamdani.
As Blakeman and I were talking, Hochul was with Mamdani in a Brooklyn park for a supposed rally that lasted just 15 minutes. It was their first campaign appearance together and illustrated Hochul’s desperate bid to catch some of the socialist Pied Piper’s hold on his radical supporters.
Blakeman sees them as a kind of Dumb and Dumber duo, saying, neither has any idea how to run the city or the state.
“The more she campaigns with him, the better for me,” he claimed.
On points
There might be something to that. City & State reported that “the excitement for the mayor in the park clearly outweighed the enthusiasm for the governor herself.”
It said Hochul invited people “to check the polls . . . I think we’re doing well.” But when Mamdani went his own way, the outlet said he was “followed by a gaggle of fans” who presumably left her behind.
Blakeman insists it’s foolish to believe Mamdani can carry Hochul to victory.
After I mentioned that more than 1 million New Yorkers voted for one of Mamdani’s opponents in the 2025 mayoral race, Blakeman seized the opening to make a bold prediction.
He knows that Republicans in statewide races for the last two decades lost in large part because they got trounced in the city, with some getting under 20% of the turnout.
So even when GOP candidates win all or most of the more sparsely populated upstate counties, Democrats win the state with their huge city margins.
In recent years, Lee Zeldin, in 2022, and Trump in ’24, topped out at 30% in the city, and both lost the state by about six points.
Blakeman vows to end the streak, saying, “Here’s my prediction, I’m going to win at least 33% in the city.”
After a moment, he raises the challenge to himself, saying, “Make that 36 to 38%.”
All else being equal, that would more than enough to retire Hochul and save New York. May it be so.