The Arizona Diamondbacks fell just short of their goal to make the postseason in 2026, despite finishing 86-76 and contending up until the final weekend of the season.
But in order to get back to the dance in the coming season, three things simply have to happen for Arizona.
Three developments that are necessary for the 2027 Diamondbacks. They simply cannot contend without at least one of them:
1: First base/DH production
The Diamondbacks got next to nothing out of their rotating platoon of first basemen and DHs. There were individual contributions scattered in there from players like Ildemaro Vargas, Tim Tawa, Jose Fernandez and even Pavin Smith on occasion, but the overall body of work was poor.
In a season where the D-backs had relative down years from Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll and Geraldo Perdomo — at least offensively — they struggled to get much middle-order production.
Gabriel Moreno's batting title and career year and Nolan Arenado's 30-homer resurgence were helpful, but the Diamondbacks need to see some production from first base — a position that ranked dead last in MLB with a .636 OPS — and designated hitter (which was good for a .631 OPS).
Some type of external addition needs to be made to one or both of these positions.
2: Corbin Burnes returns to form
Corbin Burnes was expected to provide a mid-season boost to Arizona's rotation in 2026, but that did not happen.
He suffered a shoulder injury during his return from Tommy John surgery that pushed him out to September; when he did return, he pitched to a 7.84 ERA over three ineffective, short starts.
The D-backs' rotation is in trouble. With the expectation of a reduced payroll in 2027, there likely won't be enough money to land a rotation-leading starter.
For as excellently as Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt and Michael Soroka performed this year, none of that success is guaranteed in 2027. Soroka may not even return to the team, given the fact he is likely to it free agency.
The D-backs don't need Burnes, the former Cy Young winner, to pitch his best-ever season. They simply need solidity from the right-hander — solidity that at least resembles the pedigree of the pitcher they signed to a six-year, $210 million deal.
One thing is certain, however. Starting pitching is of the utmost importance for teams looking to engineer another deep playoff run.
3: Diamondbacks' bullpen maintains pace
The Diamondbacks' bullpen was a shock to most witnessing it. Arizona's relievers went from being an anxiety-inducing liability to a team strength.
Though a 4.07 bullpen ERA may not look exceptional, they ranked fifth in baseball by Win Probability Added, rarely blew a save — even during Paul Sewald's return tenure as closer — and finished the year with five leverage arms under a 3.00 ERA.
Can that continue into 2027? There's always the threat of regression, and Arizona likely won't see the return of arms like Kevin Ginkel, Jonathan Loaisiga and Ryan Thompson. Taylor Clarke may or may not return.
But they have a back-end group that should remain intact. Justin Martinez, Juan Morillo and Brandyn Garcia all performed well in 2026. If they can remain a lock-down presence in the later innings, the D-backs should be able to survive off that.
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