Before we begin looking ahead to 2027, OTM is looking back at 2026, diving into the highs and lows of the roster. Today, we look at the team’s biggest free agent acquisition.
2026 In a Nutshell
Suarez was the Red Sox’s biggest offseason acquisition. He had some great starts and some bad starts. He did not appear in either of the two postseason games, which should tell you all you need to know about whether he lived up to his price tag.
The Good
On his day, Suarez showed why he earned such a large contract. He had six starts in which he pitched over six innings while allowing one or fewer runs, including two eight-inning shutouts.
He continues to be one of the best in the game at limiting hard contact. His barrel and hard-hit rates both ranked in the top 20% of qualifiers, thanks to his ability to pitch to the edges. Some of his other metrics took a step back, but he was able to navigate that and turn in a 3.22 ERA while maintaining a respectable 23% strikeout rate.
He also remains excellent in the field. It often goes unnoticed for pitchers, but the lefty routinely showed cat-like reflexes on the mound when balls were hit up the middle. His defense has always been stellar, and that continued in 2026.
The Bad
There’s going to be more bad than good, but I’d like to emphasize that Suarez was still very effective this year.
The biggest area where the lefty took a step back was in his strike throwing. His walk rate jumped from 5.8 to 7.5%. His mark is still very solid, but it’s not quite the elite mark he posted in 2025 and it limited him to just 5.1 innings per start.
As for why his walk rate rose, there are a few places to look. ABS is an obvious one, and it certainly had an impact. Batters successfully overturned 17 strikes against Suarez, second most in baseball. On the other side of the equation, though, the Red Sox overturned 13 calls in Suarez’s favor, which ranked near the top of the league. Furthermore, his rate of pitches outside the strike zone called strikes in 2025 wasn’t extraordinary, so it’s not as if he was relying on framing and bad umpiring to throw strikes.
Aside from rule changes, Suarez didn’t throw his cutter in the zone nearly as frequently this season. Its zone rate against righties dropped from 57% to 44%, which dropped the strike rate about 6%. The locations were still good, and the contact against it was weak, but he was often just off the edge of the strike zone, which led to more walks. Small misses aren’t concerning, and the pitch was still good, so we’d let it slide.
More concerning, however, was his changeup. In 2025, it was his best two-strike pitch to right-handed hitters. In 2026, the chase rate dropped 10%, the swinging strike rate dropped 6%, and the strike rate dropped 9%. His feel for the pitch disappeared, with the percentage of changeups landing in the “chase” and “waste” zone jumping from 46% to 55%. By the end of the season, the pitch had virtually disappeared from his arsenal.
His changeup usage against lefties was smaller, but effective with the Phillies. In 2026, its usage was cut about in half against lefties as its effectiveness waned, leading to a decrease in strikeouts.
Suarez was on and off the roster due to injuries, which might have had something to do with him not having feel for all of his pitches. With a wide arsenal that relies on location, he needs to be precise to survive. Even without being at the top of his game, he turned in a solid season, so while the list of negatives might seem long, don’t sour on Suarez going into next year.
Best Game or Moment
Suarez threw two eight-inning shutouts in April. Those were his best games, although at that point in the season, things were going poorly for the team. In August, Suarez had a brutal month, posting a 5.70 ERA in five starts, adding another question mark to the pitching staff heading into the postseason. On September 4th, however, the lefty fired seven shutout innings against the Orioles, and followed it with seven innings of one-run baseball in his next start against the Royals. He, of course, did not pitch in the postseason, but he silenced some concerns about his demise.
The Big Question
Does the changeup come back? Suarez’s cutter is excellent at neutralizing righties, but his changeup is his best bet at continuing to punch them out. He’ll need it to continue posting solid marks against right-handed hitters.
2027 and Beyond
Suarez has always been able to survive without premium velocity. As long as he pitches to the edges, as he’s shown a history of doing, he’ll keep a solid floor and turn in long starts due to his ability to induce weak contact. On the other hand, if his command goes, that contract will look ugly in a hurry.