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INTRO/PLAYBOOK: BILLS AT RAIDERS
The Raiders need to catch their breath.
Josh Allen is coming to take it away.
A week after Drake Maye and the Patriots exposed their defense, the Raiders welcome a quarterback who can punish their mistakes and turn otherwise sound defensive possessions into exhausting exercises in frustration.
Cover his receivers and Allen can run. Pressure him without keeping him contained and he can escape. Commit too many defenders to stopping his legs and he can throw over their heads.
For a team trying to stop a two-game losing streak, Sunday at Allegiant Stadium presents arguably Las Vegas’ most daunting challenge yet.
The Bills arrive at 4-1 after a 37-34 overtime victory over the Rams on Monday night. Allen rushed for 121 yards, while running back James Cook added 111. Together, they scored three rushing touchdowns, offering another reminder that defending Buffalo requires much more than disrupting its passing game.
That is an uncomfortable assignment for a Raiders defense coming off its worst performance of the season. New England piled up 536 yards in a 45-17 victory, with Maye accounting for five touchdowns.
The Raiders cannot afford another afternoon of missed assignments, poor pursuit angles and receivers running behind their secondary. Against Allen, those breakdowns can quickly turn a competitive game into a long afternoon.
The challenge begins with discipline.
Maxx Crosby and the Raiders’ pass rush must affect Allen without creating escape routes. Interior defenders have to maintain their rush lanes. The secondary must stay attached to receivers when Allen extends plays, resisting the temptation to abandon coverage as he moves toward the line of scrimmage.
Getting him to third down is only part of the job.
Finishing the possession is where the real work begins.
Defensive coordinator Rob Leonard also must account for Cook, whose presence makes loading up against Allen a dangerous proposition. If Buffalo establishes its conventional running game, the Raiders will face an even more difficult guessing game on early downs.
But this cannot become an assignment the Raiders leave entirely to their defense.
Their offense has to help.
Coach Klint Kubiak needs a running game that creates manageable situations, a passing attack that finds contributions beyond Brock Bowers and possessions that end with points. Kirk Cousins cannot repeatedly be asked to rescue drives after unproductive early downs.
Nor can the Raiders expect field goals to keep pace if Allen begins stacking touchdowns.
Buffalo is hardly invulnerable. The Rams scored 34 points Monday, and the Raiders should view that as evidence that opportunities will be available. But opportunities mean little if penalties, protection breakdowns or missed throws squander them.
The Raiders’ 3-0 start created optimism. Two straight losses have supplied perspective.
Sunday offers a chance to show they can respond to adversity with something more substantial than promises to correct their mistakes.
They do not need to play scared of Allen.
They do need to understand that beating him requires disciplined football long after the initial play appears to be over.
MARQUEE MATCHUP: BILLS COACH JOE BRADY VS. RAIDERS DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR ROB LEONARD
Brady can make Leonard defend the entire field while accounting for an extra runner in Allen. The challenge is deciding where to commit help without making the next answer obvious. Bring a safety toward the line to support the run and Buffalo can attack the space behind him. Play lighter boxes to protect the secondary and Cook can become the centerpiece. Leonard should mix his looks, disguise coverage and choose pressure carefully rather than repeatedly leaving young defensive backs isolated. Brady, meanwhile, will look to force hesitation through formation changes and misdirection. The Raiders need to make Allen work through crowded pictures without becoming so complicated that they create confusion within their own defense.
MARQUEE MATCHUP: RAIDERS S JEREMY CHINN VS. BILLS QB JOSH ALLEN
Using Chinn as a spy on selected passing downs could give the Raiders an athletic defender positioned to track Allen when he escapes the pocket. That is a potential approach, rather than a confirmed assignment, and it comes with a trade-off: A defender watching Allen is one fewer available to rush or cover. Chinn would need to stay patient, mirror Allen’s movement and close under control. Charging too early could create an escape lane; waiting too long could concede the first down. Most importantly, the Raiders cannot treat a spy as a complete solution. Their pass rush must funnel Allen toward help, and Chinn must finish tackles against a quarterback capable of running through contact.
THE PICK: BILLS 34, RAIDERS 20
The Raiders should offer a more competitive response at home, but Buffalo presents too many ways to stress a defense still correcting the breakdowns exposed in New England. Allen’s ability to extend possessions will test the Raiders’ discipline, while Cook makes it difficult to devote every resource to the quarterback. The Raiders can generate offense through Bowers and timely throws from Cousins, but their inconsistent running game leaves too little margin for error. Buffalo takes control in the second half and sends Las Vegas to a third straight loss.
KEY STAT: 121
Allen’s rushing yards against the Rams on Monday. The Raiders must finish defensive possessions without allowing his scrambling to turn successful coverage into first downs.