As wars upend the global order and the US's reliability as an ally comes under question, Union Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw said India must identify economic vulnerabilities and plan 20 years ahead to withstand geopolitical shocks.
Union Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum
New Delhi,Oct 14, 2026 14:43 IST
India must prepare for a world where friends can turn into foes and geopolitical shifts can upend economic calculations, Union Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw said, making a case for reducing strategic vulnerabilities as global alliances become increasingly unpredictable.
Speaking at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in New Delhi, Vaishnaw said India could not afford to depend blindly on other countries for critical technologies, manufacturing inputs and economic stability. The focus, he said, must be on identifying vulnerabilities before external policy changes disrupt domestic production and growth.
"There are times when friends become foes, so it is very important to identify the factors that could make your production and economy vulnerable to someone else's policies," he said.
"Things change, politics change, and geopolitics plays a big role. So, we have to constantly calibrate our approach," Vaishnaw added.
His remarks come at a time when wars, protectionist trade policies and uncertainty over traditional partnerships, particularly with the US under a mercurial Donald Trump, are forcing governments to reassess their economic dependencies.
INDIA’S 20-YEAR GAME PLAN
Vaishnaw said India was taking a long-term approach to building economic resilience, planning decades ahead rather than reacting to each geopolitical disruption as it unfolds.
The government's planning framework divides its priorities into three horizons: short-term goals spanning three to five years, medium-term objectives covering five to 15 years, and long-term ambitions extending 20 to 25 years.
"We think along those lines, identify those vulnerabilities, and start working on them," he said, adding that India’s approach to identifying vulnerabilities and addressing them is very methodical.
US TRADE TENSIONS ADD TO UNCERTAINTY
Vaishnaw did not name any country, but his comments are reflective of India’s strategic restraint in the face of the long-pending trade agreement with the US, which has turned into a major test of bilateral ties.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said earlier this month that negotiations had reached a "plateau", leaving limited room for further concessions. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has also said a deal is not imminent, despite both sides striving to iron out differences.
India is seeking better tariff treatment for its exporters while protecting sensitive sectors. New Delhi has resisted opening up markets for products such as dairy, poultry, rice and wheat, and has sought greater clarity on US tariff measures before making concessions.
Washington, meanwhile, has pressed India to reduce its Russian oil dealings, arguing that revenue from those sales helps finance Moscow's war in Ukraine. A new US law that could pave the way for tariffs of up to 100% on Indian goods over purchases of Russian oil has thrown another spanner in the works.
During Trump’s second term, ties between India and the US have been rocky for the most part. Tariff threats and an immigration crackdown by targeting H-1B visa holders have cast a shadow on efforts to stabilise the partnership.
Against this backdrop, Vaishnaw's remarks indicate that India’s resilience will depend not only on who its partners are today, but also on how prepared the country is if their priorities change tomorrow.
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