Beyond the polls: What are Israelis really thinking as they head to the ballot box?

Polls only go so far in predicting election winners. With only a few days left before Israelis vote on Tuesday, the country has plenty of them. KAN, Channel 12, Channel 13, and Maariv publish surveys from various sources, while i24NEWS and Channel 14 run their own polls.

Each new poll produces a headline that often disagrees with other outlets. Israelis follow polls like a tennis match, their heads swiveling from side to side, following the ball in play.

Polls are often constructed to reinforce the media sources that conduct them, giving the public a clear picture of who the news outlet may endorse, but not an accurate snapshot of what people are really thinking.

The Magazine therefore sought people from various parts of the country and asked who they supported and why. There were a few surprises.

For instance, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir has attracted supporters from left-leaning places like Rosh Hayin, to haredi enclaves such as Tel Stone. We also uncovered new voting approaches, such as “splitting the vote,” and picking two options, then choosing one blindly. 

Do these represent trends? Perhaps. But they are certainly reflections of the turmoil that Israel faces, both domestically and when dealing with world powers. Here are the people we interviewed, speaking for themselves.

I’m still not sure who I’m voting for, but I think it will be either Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party or Likud.

Smotrich has done an excellent job, and he’s a straight guy. They haven’t come up with any shmutz against him, like putting his hand in the cookie jar or anything like that. I want to see how the situation develops over the next week.

I’m much more concerned about the situation in Israel than I am about America. Because in America, I don’t believe there’s much anyone can do anymore. Here, there’s a strong likelihood we’ll have to go to another election.

I have a lot of issues with B’Yachad leader Naftali Bennett. I just don’t think he’s good for the Jewish people or the State of Israel.

My husband and I are splitting the ticket: he’s voting for Netanyahu, and I’m voting for Ben-Gvir.

We’re voting right-wing, because we feel like the world is on fire with antisemitism, and all our enemies want Netanyahu out. For me, that is the best reason he should stay.

In the past, Netanyahu has aligned himself with the Center, or even the slightly Left, so I’m leaning toward voting for Ben-Gvir, all the way to the Right.

I live in Ra’anana, less than 10 km. from Kalkilya [in the West Bank]. If Kalkilya becomes part of a Palestinian state, then I expect there will be white pickup trucks full of Hamas supporters on the streets of Ra’anana in no time. That’s why the ultimate goal for me, never mind all the other issues, is to prevent a Palestinian state.

The person most proactive in this area is Smotrich. He has done more to secure the future of Israel than anyone, including Netanyahu. His closeness to Netanyahu has kept Bibi from making major mistakes, such as considering Ra’am (United Arab List) [in a coalition].

Smotrich is the only one who said: “I’m not in the coalition if you invite Ra’am.” He’s a man of principle. He doesn’t lie. I interviewed him once, and I was so impressed by how quickly and accurately he thinks and responds. He has a really good mind.

“I know he made many mistakes in terms of public relations. He has a lot of enemies. But he has my vote. I trust him. I don’t think he will lie to me. If the State of Israel goes crazy and votes Left, as it did in 1992, we will be eating excrement.

Alan | Tel Stone

I’m voting for Ben-Gvir. He will keep Netanyahu in check. It seems to me that Netanyahu is trying to drift to the Left. Apparently, Ben-Gvir says he has information that Netanyahu is committing to some countries that don't want him to affiliate with Ben-Gvir. So the idea is to build Ben-Gvir up with enough votes so that the Right cannot be ignored.

I left Likud after they pushed out Tali Gottlieb. Maybe Netanyahu thought she was a threat to too many others. Netanyahu tends to go to the Left, so it doesn’t fit his narrative to take such a strong right-wing person again.

Ben-Gvir will be the surprise of this race, even among haredi people who used to vote only for Shas and United Torah Judaism, because many of us feel disenfranchised by those parties.

I’ve been voting in Israel since 1988, and for the first time I don’t know definitively who I’ll be voting for.

But I know how I’ll be voting, unless something drastic happens. I plan to take the voting slips of the two parties that I can tolerate (each belonging to a different bloc), turn them over, mix them randomly, grab one note, stick it in the envelope, and leave the other one face down in the voting booth.

This way, I will have definitely voted, but won’t know for which party or which bloc, or even (unless both parties don’t get in) if my vote counted. The Right and Left both stink this time, and choosing either is damaging to the country.

I’ll be choosing a party not trying to lead, but that supports a Zionist government that could go with either side, and let them decide what to do. But I won’t vote for a party whose leaders ever held a decisive decision-making seat at the main political or military tables prior to Oct. 7.

I still haven’t decided what to do in the next election [should a government fail to be formed in this election], but that’s probably still three to four months away.

Anyone who supports Netanyahu after Oct. 7 is an accomplice to his crimes and the disaster that he has brought upon us. Even if it’s my brother, childhood friend, or Donald Trump!

I’m voting for Ben-Gvir, as are many other people I know from here. He has enabled us to get guns for protection, and he understands the danger we are facing, living on the seam.

I’m voting for United Torah Judaism, because it best represents my needs, and my community’s.

Asked whether some in her haredi community would be voting for Ben-Gvir, she replied: “Ben-Gvir represented many haredim as a lawyer, and he never discusses drafting yeshiva guys. He is respectful to rabbis with differing opinions and comes across as very macho to young haredi men.”

I am probably voting for the Joint List. In 2022, I voted for Labor. After the war, I moved to the Left. I wasn’t very happy with how the war was progressing. I wanted the war to be managed correctly: getting the hostages alive and not destroying Gaza for the sake of destroying Gaza.

I would prefer that there was a Palestinian state side by side with Israel in the West Bank. I think both sides need to give concessions. There should be Jewish sovereignty. Israel should have certain areas, such as Ariel and certain settlement blocs. Israel needs to give up Umm el-Fahm and The Triangle.

Nothing ever really happens right away, but the process has to be started in order to reach it eventually. I don’t think the process has ever really started. If the Joint List within the government has some sort of functioning unit, we can reach some sort of solution eventually.

The current prime minister is the strongest and most experienced leader we have. I know a lot of people, English speakers especially, are talking about change. But before you make a change, it’s always worth exploring what that change is, and whether it’s going to be for the better or worse.

Gadi Eisenkot (Yashar), Naftali Bennett (B’Yachad), and further Left, Yair Golan (The Democrats), are leaders who are weak and still living in their conceptzia (rigid mindset) of October 6. They haven’t learned very much from the events that we’ve experienced; the tragedy that we’ve experienced.

Most of the other parties have one agenda – to get Netanyahu out. If they don’t include Likud, they’ll have no choice but to lean on [the support of] the Arab parties.

As for the haredi issue – it’s been blown out of all proportion.

I’m voting for Bennett because this country really needs an alternative to Netanyahu. Unlike the other parties in the opposition, he’s already been prime minister and has shown he can bring together parties from across the political spectrum.

He also has a lot of experienced people in his party, and he has an actual plan for tackling the issue of equal contribution to the state [when it comes to army service and participating in the workforce]. ■