The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its forecast for Tajikistan’s economic growth to 7.3% in 2026 and 6.8% in 2027, significantly above its previous estimates of 6% and 4.8%, respectively.
The updated projections were published on October 13 in the IMF’s October edition of the World Economic Outlook.
Compared with its April forecast, the IMF has raised its estimate for 2026 by 1.3 percentage points and for 2027 by two percentage points. Despite the upward revision, the fund expects economic growth to slow gradually over the coming year.
The October report does not provide a separate explanation for the changes to Tajikistan’s growth outlook.
In an earlier country report published in January, the IMF said the economy was being supported by substantial financial inflows from abroad, strong domestic demand and the development of the mining industry.
Remittances from labor migrants remain a major source of economic activity. According to the IMF, remittances amounted to 48% of Tajikistan’s GDP in 2024, supporting household consumption and domestic demand.
However, the fund has warned that dependence on remittances leaves the economy vulnerable to slower growth in countries hosting Tajik migrants, which could reduce inflows and weaken domestic demand.
Inflation forecast revised upward
The IMF has also slightly raised its inflation projections for Tajikistan.
It now expects inflation to reach 4.1% in 2026, up from the previous forecast of 4%, and 4.8% in 2027, compared with the earlier estimate of 4.7%.
How other international institutions assess Tajikistan’s economy
Other international financial institutions also expect Tajikistan to maintain relatively strong economic growth, although their forecasts differ.
The World Bank raised its growth forecast for Tajikistan in October to 7.5% for 2026, from 6.5%, and to 6.2% for 2027, from 5%.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB), in its September outlook, projected growth of 7% in 2026 and 6.8% in 2027. It lowered its 2026 estimate from 7.3% but left its 2027 forecast unchanged.
The ADB attributed the downward revision for 2026 partly to the impact of the escalation of the war in Ukraine on fuel supplies, which it said was creating additional constraints for Tajikistan’s economy. The bank expects inflation to reach 4.5% in 2026 and 4.7% in 2027.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) forecasts growth of 7.9% in 2026 and 7% in 2027.
According to the EBRD, economic activity is being supported by industry, services, agriculture, infrastructure investment and remittances. In the first half of 2026, fixed capital investment rose by 35.9% and exports increased by 57.2% year on year.
The Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSD) projects GDP growth of 7.8% in 2026 and 6.7% in 2027. It expects growth to moderate partly because remittance inflows, which have been a major driver of domestic demand in recent years, are likely to normalize.
Growth forecasts for 2027
The latest projections from the five institutions put Tajikistan’s economic growth in 2027 between 6.2% and 7%.
- EBRD: 7%
- IMF: 6.8%
- ADB: 6.8%
- EFSD: 6.7%
- World Bank: 6.2%
All five institutions expect growth to slow in 2027 compared with recent performance.
The outlook will depend in part on remittance inflows, investment, industrial development, external market conditions and the broader global economy.
According to Tajikistan’s Statistics Agency, the country’s economy grew by 8.4% in 2025 and by 8.2% in the first half of 2026. The authorities expect GDP growth to reach 8.5% for the full year.