Rays Make the Right Decision To Start Nick Martinez in Game 1

Part of the reason that the Tampa Bay Rays have found so much success on the field is their ability to zig when opponents think they are going to zag.

They are adept at making decisions on the fly, with that being possible because their manager, Kevin Cash, has such a good feel for the pulse of his team. All the buttons he has pushed have worked, and he is making another that will certainly come under some scrutiny.

In Game 1 of the World Series against the Milwaukee Brewers, he isn’t going with his ace, Drew Rasmussen, as he has done in the ALDS against the New York Yankees and the ALCS against the Cleveland Guardians. Instead, it will be Nick Martinez who gets the ball to start the series.

This is a decision that will raise eyebrows, but it does make the most sense for the team. Presumably, the Rays will go with Rasmussen in Game 2 and then unleash ALCS MVP Freddy Peralta against his former team in Game 3, the first at Tropicana Field.

Rays make calculated decision to start Nick Martinez not Drew Rasmussen

With this alignment, it would mean Griffin Jax taking the ball in Game 4, with Martinez back on the mound in Game 5. That leaves their two best pitchers currently, Rasmussen and Peralta, available for Games 6 and 7, if necessary.

Another reason this rotation order makes sense is Tampa Bay playing the percentages and how their guys have performed historically. Martinez is unfazed by taking the mound in a hostile road environment, helping the team to wins at Yankee Stadium and Progressive Field in the playoffs.

That has been a trend this season. Away from Tropicana Field, Martinez has a 2.43 ERA in 103.2 innings this season; at home, he has a 3.90 ERA in 85.1 innings of work.

Throughout his tenure with the Rays, Peralta’s splits are the opposite. The sample size is much smaller, but he has performed much better at home than on the road. Of course, some context needs to be shared, as his first two starts with Tampa Bay came at Coors Field against the Colorado Rockies and Sutter Health Park against the Athletics, two hitter-friendly stadiums.

Over his last 10 starts, it hasn’t mattered where Peralta was; he has dominated. Pushing him to Game 3 not only means pitching at Tropicana Field, but takes away one layer of emotion for him to deal with. Playing against a former team is hard enough; doing so on their home field would have been even tougher.

The coaching staff has worked hard to make adjustments on the mound, and they have all paid off with incredible production.

As for Rasmussen, there is a benefit to getting him an extra day of rest. He has been excellent all season, but the longer that he has had between starts to recuperate, the better his production has been.

Rasmussen, should he pitch in Game 2, will have had five days of rest. His ERA is a stellar 2.57 on 19 starts. On four days’ rest, he has a 2.77 ERA. When it is six or more days, it drops to 2.14, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.

Pitching has been a strength of Tampa Bay all year long, and the reason for that is that it puts their guys in the best positions to succeed. Tweaking the pitching order, which they also did in the ALCS, can be perceived as a risk by some, but the numbers speak for themselves.