When NASCAR decided to abandon its win-and-in, elimination-style playoff format and bring back the postseason Chase after a 12-year hiatus, this is what it was hoping for.
After a chaotic day at Phoenix Raceway, there’s seven drivers who have legitimate shots at winning the championship with three races to go.
The Freeway Insurance 500 saw points leader Kyle Larson struggle all day before crashing out with 29 laps to go, regular-season champion Denny Hamlin grapple with a blown tire and a pit road penalty, and Tyler Reddick win for the first time since April. Meanwhile, other Chase contenders like Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney had solid performances to make up ground on Larson in the standings.
Every Chase driver gained points on Larson at Phoenix. His 49-point lead over Hamlin shrunk to a five-point edge over now second-place driver Christopher Bell. In all, six drivers are within 56 points of Larson.
Now, NASCAR heads to Talladega Superspeedway, arguably the most unpredictable track on the circuit. The 2.66-mile asphalt tri-oval opened in 1969 and is known for high speeds and big wrecks.
“I think the word is pressure. It’s just at another level,” NASCAR Hall of Famer Dale Jarrett told USA TODAY Sports about the championship battle. “I mean, there’s always been pressure, but I think this Chase has brought another meaning to that word.”
Jarrett’s USA Network colleague Leigh Diffey loves the storylines that the Chase has produced.
“Can anybody catch Larson? What's Denny going to do? Is Blaney going to have this massive comeback? What about Joey? What about Chase Briscoe? It's all positive,” Diffey said.
While Talladega is difficult to forecast, a handful of active Chase drivers have won there, including Hamlin, Logano, Blaney and Reddick. NASCAR then heads to Martinsville Speedway – where Hamlin has won six times – for the penultimate race of the season before finishing up at Homestead-Miami Speedway, where Larson has won twice in the last four seasons.
With three races remaining, USA TODAY Sports presents tier rankings for each of the 16 drivers’ chances to win the Chase:
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▶ Daniel Suarez, Chris Buescher, Ryan Preece, William Byron, Bubba Wallace, Carson Hocevar, Chase Elliott
Wallace had a chance to graduate out of this tier and give himself a fighting chance heading into Talladega. He took the lead from Logano and led 52 consecutive laps at Phoenix before being hit with a speeding penalty on pit road after Larson blew his tire. Wallace had to drop back in the field and finished 17th. His race at Phoenix was the epitome of what the entire season has been like for the No. 23 Toyota. Wallace has had fast cars, but strong races for him have been plagued by mistakes, mechanical issues or getting caught up in someone else’s wreck.
While Hocevar won the spring race at Talladega, he, along with the other drivers listed here, simply haven’t displayed the consistency required to make a run with three races to go.
Incredibly unlikely, but not mathematically impossible
▶ Austin Cindric, Ty Gibbs
For either of these drivers to be in the mix by the time the race at Homestead arrives, they probably need to win at Talladega and Martinsville and hope that guys like Larson and Hamlin keep having bad days.
Cindric has had three top-10 finishes in the Chase, and Talladega is typically a good track for him. He won there last year and finished eighth at the superspeedway in the fall. Martinsville is another solid venue for the No. 2 Ford, with finishes of fourth, eighth and ninth over the last four seasons.
Superspeedways have been difficult for Gibbs in his budding Cup Series career, but he did finish third at Talladega last fall. Short tracks is where he has excelled, winning at Bristol and Iowa this season while finishing fourth at Martinsville in the spring.
Phoenix shook things up.
— NASCAR on USA (@NASCARonUSA) October 20, 2026
Here's where the drivers stand. 📊 pic.twitter.com/bTKLBb6Fon
In the mix, could use another win
▶ Tyler Reddick, Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney
Reddick won five of the first nine races of the season, went through a long slog of rough races, then finally found his way back into victory lane at Phoenix. Now, with three races to go, he’s back in the championship hunt. Ahead for Reddick are two tracks where he has wins in the Next Gen car — Talladega and Homestead. While Martinsville hasn’t been a great track for Reddick, 23XI Racing seems to be making some strides when it comes to their short track performances.
For Logano and Blaney, the next two tracks are ones that have been strong for Team Penske Fords. In his last nine trips to Martinsville, Blaney has a pair of wins and an average finish of 4.4. Talladega hasn’t been as strong for the No. 12, but Blaney did win there in 2023. Blaney also has three top-five finishes at Homestead.
Logano has been the king of short tracks in the second half of the season, winning at North Wilkesboro, Richmond and Bristol, while also winning the first two stages at Phoenix. Logano has an average finish of 5.5 over his last 13 trips to Martinsville and he has three career wins at Talladega. He last won at Homestead in 2018.
The top contenders
▶ Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, Chase Briscoe, Denny Hamlin
Through the first six races in the Chase, Larson looked like the best driver on the planet, winning a pair of races and posting an average finish of 2.8. Everything was going right for the No. 5 Chevrolet, and then everything went very wrong at Phoenix where he notched a DNF after blowing a tire and crashing into the outside wall late in the race.
Still, Larson has a slim lead atop the leaderboard over Bell, who has been consistent all year long despite not winning all that much. Bell’s lone win came in the Chase opener at Darlington, and he’s finished runner-up eight times this season. The only driver with more top-five finishes than Bell this season is his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate, Hamlin.
The oldest active driver in the Cup Series, Hamlin is still seeking his first championship and was the favorite when the Chase began. But the regular-season champion has run into some bad luck. He finished 18th at Darlington, spun out and damaged his car at Las Vegas, then blew a tire and suffered a speeding penalty at Phoenix. Through seven Chase races, Hamlin has an average finish of 12.4 – which simply won’t be good enough to win a championship. On the bright side for Hamlin, he’s won twice at Talladega, has six wins at Martinsville, and Homestead has been a solid track for his No. 11 Toyota. If there was ever a time for Hamlin to turn it on, it’s now.
And then there’s Chase Briscoe – winner of two Chase races, taking checkered flags at Las Vegas and Charlotte. There aren’t any more traditional mile-and-a-half tracks left for Briscoe to ace – Homestead is a bit of a unique beast – but the tracks ahead could bode well for the No. 19 Toyota. Briscoe won the fall race at Talladega last season, his short track racing has improved lately with top-three finishes at North Wilkesboro and Richmond, and he ran fourth at Homestead last year.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Who has best chance to win 2026 NASCAR title? Taking stock of The Chase