It’s always a popular question — or string of questions — during my Friday live streams on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel: Which slot receivers have the best matchups? And which outside (boundary) wideouts are in good spots?
While it shouldn’t be the deciding factor in how you make your weekly lineup decisions, knowing if a pass catcher has a particularly good or bad matchup is valuable information that can sometimes serve as a tiebreaker for your most vexing start-sit decisions.
This season I’ll use this space to break down the best (and worst) matchups for pass catchers operating from the slot and those lining up primarily on the boundary. Some pass catchers, as you know, split their time between the boundary and the slot, making this little exercise more complicated. I’ll do my best to pinpoint the most appealing (and unappealing) weekly matchups, and what they might mean for your weekly start-sit decisions.
I’m switching from adjusted yards per attempt to target share as the primary metric for evaluating slot and boundary matchups. AY/A can be very much skewed by a big play or two, leaving us chasing (unpredictable) big plays. I’ll still use AY/A — along with completion rate over expected — in my analysis here. But target share to the slot and boundary will get the graphic treatment going forward.
Slot Matchups
Vikings vs. Colts
Seeing that slot guy Jauan Jennings has been targeted on 5 percent of his pass routes this season, I suppose TJ Hockenson is the only Minnesota pass catcher who will have a real chance to take advantage of a Colts defense that has been attacked via the slot all year.
Hockenson, who’s coming back from a brain injury, has run about 40 percent of his routes from the slot this season. Before his Week 5 head injury, Hockenson ranked second among all tight ends in expected fantasy points per route, meaning he was seeing valuable looks from the struggling Kyler Murray. The Colts defense, meanwhile, has allowed the NFL’s tenth highest EPA per target to opposing tight ends. As the barista told me this morning, Hock is in a good spot in Week 7.
Texans vs. Giants
Jaylin Noel should be in good position to make my Regression Files analysis look foolish in Week 7. Noel, you see, is running hotter than the sun at the moment. But now he gets a matchup against a New York secondary allowing a bunch of slot targets.
The Giants aren’t necessarily bad at defending slot throws. They allow the league’s tenth lowest adjusted yards per attempt on slot targets along with the fifth lowest completion rate over expected. Even so, running nearly 70 percent of his pass routes from the slot, Noel could see enough targets to be relevant for 12-team purposes.
Dolphins vs. Jets
Boss, I’m tired of writing about Malik Washington and Miami’s down-bad receivers. I write about them all the time in Regression Files and now I’m legally required to tell you Washington has a nice matchup in Week 7 against a Jets secondary giving up the league’s tenth highest adjusted yards per attempt on slot targets. Over the past three weeks only four defenses -- the Bears, Raiders, Bengals, and Saints -- have allowed a higher adjusted yards per attempt on slot passes.
Washington is a major (positive) regression candidate with a good matchup. Malik Willis, meanwhile, has thrown to the slot at the league’s eighth highest rate (31 percent). You could do worse than Washington, theoretically.
Boundary Matchups
Saints vs. Steelers
Pittsburgh’s secondary giving up the highest boundary target share the the 11th highest adjusted yards per attempt on boundary passes doesn’t hurt Bryce Lance‘s Week 7 case, which I outlined in this week’s Regression Files. Lance runs 76 percent of his routes from outside, and Jordyn Tyson won’t be back for at least another week.
Only eight teams have given up more receiving yardage than the Steelers on boundary throws, and only four teams have given up more boundary touchdowns. That’s a boon for Chris Olave, who runs 68 percent of his routes from out wide, along with Lance, a viable flex play in Week 7.
Browns vs. Titans
Denzel Boston has been quiet of late with just 61 receiving yards over his past two games. As the Browns wideout running almost all of his routes from the boundary, he should have a chance to cook against Tennessee this week.
The Titans defense is looking more and more like a pass funnel after starting the season as a modest run funnel. Tennessee’s rush defense has tightened up over the past four weeks; on the season only eight teams allow a lower rushing success rate than the Titans. That might leave the Browns — sporting one of the league’s most putrid running games — no choice but to air it out this week.
The Titans allow the eighth highest success rate on boundary throws. They rank fourth in EPA per target on boundary pass attempts. This should work out for Boston, who has accounted for a hefty 45 percent of Cleveland’s air yards and 18.5 percent of the team’s targets. We could see the good side of variance this week for the rookie wideout.
Panthers vs. Bucs
This looks more like a Jalen Coker week than it does a Tetairoa McMillan week, since Coker runs out 45 percent of his routes from outside while McMillan is lined up on the boundary at a 71 percent rate. It doesn’t mean you’re benching McMillan — you’re definitely not. Coker might be the upside play among the Carolina receivers reaping the benefits of an extremely fantasy-friendly Panthers offense.
Seahawks vs. Chiefs
Here’s a stat you won’t like if you’re forced to start Rashid Shaheed this week: Kansas City has allowed 91 fantasy points this season on boundary targets; the league leading Bills have given up 251 fantasy points to boundary pass catchers. That’s quite the gap.
KC’s secondary is shutting down any and all outside receivers this season. No team allows a lower EPA per target on outside passes than the Chiefs. Only the Bengals allow a lower adjusted yards per attempt on throws to the boundary. Shaheed’s matchup could hardly be worse. The same goes for Jaxson Smith-Njigba, who operates from the boundary on 71 percent of his pass routes. Please hear me though: Matchups don’t matter for a player of JSN’s caliber.