Kazakhstan’s economy grew by 4.2% in January-September 2026, supported by 5.4% growth in the non-resource sector, despite an 8.3% decline in oil production, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin reported at a government meeting chaired by Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov.
Construction, manufacturing, transportation services and trade accounted for more than 75% of GDP growth, while agriculture and communications also recorded positive growth, Zhumangarin said.
Fixed capital investment reached KZT 16.1 trillion ($35.9bn), up 7% year over year. Private investment rose by 18.2% and accounted for 85.7% of total fixed capital investment. Manufacturing recorded the strongest investment growth at 40.1%, followed by construction at 32%, information and communications at 29.2%, health care at 20.4% and agriculture at 9.1%.
Gross foreign direct investment inflows totaled $9.4bn in the first half of 2026.
Manufacturing and construction lead growth
Manufacturing output increased by 8.6% in January-September, up 0.2 percentage points from the January-August growth rate. Mechanical engineering production grew by 22.8%, including a 29.9% increase in automotive manufacturing and a 20.7% rise in electrical equipment production.
Other sectors also recorded strong gains, with food production increasing by 13.8%, finished metal products by 34.8%, pharmaceuticals by 30.9% and chemicals by 23.4%.
Construction output rose by 11.5%, while 13.2mn square meters of housing were completed, up 2.7% year over year.
Agricultural production growth accelerated to 5.8% from 5.2% in January-August. Kazakhstan harvested 23mn tons of grain and 3.7mn tons of oilseeds, while agricultural exports reached $4.9bn in January-July, up 33% from the same period in 2025.
Oil output declines as inflation slows
Oil production fell to 69.4mn tons in January-September, down 8.3% year over year. The mining industry's volume index stood at 95.7%, while gas production reached 91.9% of the level recorded in the same period of 2025. Output of other minerals increased by 12.7%, coal production rose by 6.6% and metal ore production grew by 1.6%.
The government also reported that annual inflation slowed to 9.3% in September from 9.8% in August. Food prices declined by 0.1% month over month in September.
Real household incomes increased by 0.7% in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 0.1% in the first quarter.
Source: Official information resource of the Prime Minister of Kazakhstan
Tax revenues increase by 18.2%
State budget tax revenues totaled KZT 19.3 trillion ($43.0bn) in the first nine months of 2026, up KZT 3 trillion ($6.69bn), or 18.2%, year over year. Value-added tax was the main contributor, with revenues increasing by 37.3%. VAT revenues from domestically produced goods rose by 54.1%, while revenues from imported goods increased by 23.9%.
Business activity also continued to expand. The number of businesses, including self-employed individuals, increased by 32.5% to 3.2mn. The number of entrepreneurs operating under the general tax regime and paying VAT rose by 28%.
A total of 981,000 people registered as self-employed, including 807,000 who registered for tax purposes for the first time. In January-September, 277,000 new businesses were registered, comprising 34,700 legal entities and 242,300 individual entrepreneurs.
During the same period, 19,700 legal entities and 356,000 individual entrepreneurs were deregistered. However, the government noted that deregistration did not necessarily mean economic activity had ended: 42.6% of the deregistered individual entrepreneurs had no income in 2025, while 20.8% had transitioned to self-employment.
Trade surplus widens
Kazakhstan's current account recorded a surplus of $2.4bn in the first half of 2026, supported by a trade surplus of $16.2bn, more than double the figure for the same period in 2025.
By the end of the first eight months of 2026, the trade surplus had increased to $17.8bn, with goods exports totaling $60.4bn and imports reaching $42.6bn.
Imports of intermediate goods rose by 13.8%, while imports of investment goods increased by 7.9%. Imports of non-food consumer goods declined by 11.2%.
To support economic growth, the government allocated KZT 540bn ($1.20bn) from the budget to Baiterek Holding to finance priority sectors. The holding has also financed projects worth KZT 6 trillion ($13.38bn) through market-based funding, including plants producing potash and nitrogen fertilizers, aluminum rolls, processed grain products and bricks.