Economy and Finance Minister Elmer Cuba announced that his sector is designing a "very powerful" countercyclical fiscal policy to address the effects of the El Niño phenomenon, the impact of rising international oil prices, and higher interest rates, in order to sustain economic growth.
The government official made the remarks during his opening address at the Cofide-Peru Business Fest 2026 event on Wednesday.
The Cabinet member noted that, under the current government, businesses now have a five-year horizon, a level of confidence reflected in markets.
"Regarding country risk, we are at a historic low of 100 basis points. The same is true of the Peruvian private sector, and we must know how to read the Central Bank's surveys correctly," Cuba said.
"The Central Bank asks three types of questions: a general question posed to businesspeople, who respond when asked: 'How do you see the Peruvian economy over the next three and the next 12 months?' But that general manager is not a macroeconomist, is he? He may give an opinion based on what he reads in the newspaper," he detailed.
In this regard, the economist noted that managers know their businesses and sectors well and respond optimistically about their companies’ situation over the next three and 12 months in terms of hiring and investment.
"The figures are at the historical record for the series dating back to 2013, not for the economy, which have obviously declined slightly over the past two months because we are on the verge of an El Niño phenomenon," Cuba indicated.
In this regard, he said there is a paradox: businesspeople intend to hire more staff, but at the same time believe the economy could cool down due to El Niño.
Although hiring expectations are somewhat lower, "they are still in the top decile of the entire historical series."
"To sustain that enthusiasm, we are designing a very powerful countercyclical fiscal policy at the Ministry of Economy and Finance," the minister stated.
"I cannot disclose it at this time because we are going to sign it with the President (Keiko Fujimori) and announce it next Thursday," Cuba noted.
He noted that Peru, like all countries in the region, is facing three major shocks: El Niño phenomenon, which is no minor matter because it is the worst in 70 years; the shock caused by rising international oil prices due to conflict in the Middle East; and higher interest rates.
"So, that will last and will be reflected in prices. It is a major shock affecting everything one can think of, including plastics and the plastic containers that micro and small enterprises use to sell food," Cuba indicated.
"This shock is related to interest rates because central banks around the world are reacting. As a result, borrowing will become more expensive in euros, yen, pounds sterling, dollars, and pesos, not only in the short term but also in the medium and long term, because the market is demanding higher yields on the Treasury bonds of those major countries," he explained.
The minister anticipated that the bond yield curve will shift upward across all maturities, constituting a third shock to the Peruvian economy.
"So, we are experiencing one of them, but strong shocks will soon hit, and we do not want the Peruvian economy to be disrupted. We are in the best moment in the history of the Republic to respond," Cuba noted.
"We have never had such large reserves at the Central Reserve Bank, so much fiscal space, or such access to financing. It is time to respond so that the economy does not cool down. Private-sector expectations for hiring and investment remain at the highest levels, including for the next 12 months," he concluded.
(END) MDV/MVB