James Talarico’s chances of winning the Texas Senate race remain strong on prediction markets despite a nine-day absence from the campaign trail that became a target of Republican attacks.
The Democratic nominee was priced at 63 percent to win on Kalshi and 64 percent on Polymarket on Sunday, October 11, compared with 37 percent for Republican Ken Paxton.
The figures come after Talarico stepped away from in-person campaigning while recovering from the flu, prompting Republicans including Paxton to question his absence as the November 3 election approaches.
However, the market figures suggest Talarico remains the favorite, despite some movement against him during the period away from the campaign trail.
Newsweek contacted Talarico and Paxton's teams via email on Sunday for comment.
Talarico's Odds Remain Strong
On September 28, Kalshi reported Talarico's odds were at 60 percent versus Paxton's 40 percent. According to Kalshi’s analysis of the Texas Senate race, during his absence, Talarico's implied probability of winning fell from 66 percent to 63 percent by October 9, while Paxton's rose from 34 percent to 37 percent.
However, Talarico edged ahead of Paxton in a poll as he returned to the campaign trail. As reported by Newsweek, Democrat Talarico held a narrow lead over Paxton in a new Trafalgar poll of the Texas Senate race, following his first public appearance in more than a week.
Talarico, a state legislator, was up by more than 3 points in the poll of 1,086 likely voters in Texas, which was conducted from October 6 to 8. Talarico’s support stood at 47.1 percent, while 43.6 percent of respondents said they would vote for Paxton.
Many other polls have also pointed to close races with Talarico in the lead in Texas. As previously reported by Newsweek, Talarico led by 6 points in a September 21 to 30 survey from the Times and Siena University of 615 likely voters. Talarico’s support stood at 51 percent, while 45 percent of respondents said they would back Paxton. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.
A YouGov poll also showed Talarico up 6 points, 50 percent to 44 percent, among 3,625 likely voters from September 28 to October 5. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Each candidate received 45 percent in a recent poll of 850 likely voters from the University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion. Conducted from September 18 to 28, it had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
The figures indicate that Talarico remains the favorite among prediction-market traders. Prediction-market prices reflect traders' expectations of an election outcome rather than a direct measure of voter opinion. The figures also cannot establish whether the absence itself caused the change in odds.
The market movement comes as the Texas Senate contest attracts national attention, with Democrats hoping to win a statewide race in a Republican stronghold.
Republicans Seize on Absence
Talarico's absence became a political talking point after he stopped making in-person campaign appearances while recovering from the flu. He made his last appearance September 29. He then returned to public view on October 9 at the Austin City Limits music festival, ending a period of speculation about his whereabouts.
As reported by Newsweek, his absence prompted trolling from Republicans such as Paxton, who shared "MISSING" posters of Talarico, and questioned why the Democratic nominee was not campaigning in person
Talarico pushed back against the criticism, alluding to the episode in a post on X and also posted a video of himself at the Austin festival following his return.
The episode has given Republicans an opportunity to challenge Talarico's campaign at a crucial stage of the race, although it remains unclear whether the attacks have affected his support among voters.
President Trump criticized Talarico at a Texas rally last week, devoting a substantial portion of his speech to attacking him and repeatedly referring to him as "Talafreako."
The president accused Talarico of supporting sanctuary cities, opposing border-wall construction, favoring criminal justice reforms, backing DEI initiatives, voting against anti-cartel measures and threatening Texas' oil and gas industry. He hurled insults at Talarico for being a vegan and wearing a mask.
With early voting approaching and Election Day set for November 3, Talarico's return to campaigning could provide an opportunity to rebuild momentum and counter Republican criticism.
For now, prediction markets continue to favor the Democrat over Paxton, even as Republicans seek to turn his absence into an electoral liability. Whether that advantage holds in the coming weeks will offer a clearer indication of the race's direction.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Tobias Meyjes and Trevor Davies.