Republicans have been dealt another blow as data compiled from the Cook Political Report shows 14 U.S. House seats in 10 states currently held by Republicans are shifting toward Democrats 18 days before the November 3 midterm elections.
Republicans are fighting to defend their razor-thin majorities in both chambers of Congress as voters weigh concerns about the economy, inflation, President Donald Trump's job performance and the ongoing U.S. war with Iran. The GOP currently holds a 218-214 edge in the House and a 53-47 majority in the Senate, leaving little room for losses in a midterm cycle that features a number of highly competitive races. Democrats have an opportunity to flip one or both chambers, including in several states that have traditionally leaned Republican.
"Republicans remain laser-focused on winning, protecting and expanding President Trump’s House majority," Republican National Committee Press Secretary Natalie Baldassarre told Newsweek. "While Democrats celebrate political ratings, we’re thinking outside the box and pouring resources into battleground districts to highlight President Trump’s historic achievements, boost our candidates and defy history on November 3.”
Newsweek reached out to the Democratic National Committee by email and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee by phone for comment on Friday.
Which House Races Are Shifting Democrat?
On Friday, a Cook Political Report said that 11 House races are shifting toward Democrats, including five seats in four states held by Republicans. Of the five, all are still considered "lean R," according to Cook, but the move indicates that the results could be tighter than originally thought.
Similarly, a report on October 9 showed nine House seats currently held by Republicans shifting toward Democrats, including traditionally Republican states that Trump won big in 2024.
Despite the changes, several of the impacted states are still favored to have a Republican win.
Minnesota
Minnesota's First Congressional District, represented by Republican Brad Finstad, has shifted from "likely R" to "lean R." Finstad is facing Democrat Jake Johnson, with some polls showing the candidates tied. Trump won Finstad's district by 12 points in 2024.
Ohio
Ohio has two House seats occupied by Republicans—Mike Turner in the 10th District and Mike Carey in the 15th—that shifted from "likely R" to "lean R" this week. Turner is running against Democrat Kristina Knickerbocker, while Carey is up against Democrat Don Leonard. Trump won Ohio by nearly 12 points in 2024.
When it comes to the Senate, the race between Republican Senator Jon Husted and Democratic former Senator Sherrod Brown is among a handful of toss-ups that could determine the balance of power.
Kansas
Kansas' 2nd Congressional District, represented by Republican Derek Schmidt, shifted from "solid R" to "likely R." The Democratic candidate is Don Coover. Trump won the district by 20 points in 2024.
Nebraska
Nebraska's 1st Congressional District seat, occupied by Republican Mike Flood, shifted from "solid R" to "likely R." The Democratic candidate is Chris Backemeyer. Trump won Nebraska by 20 points in 2024.
Iowa
Republicans Mariannette Miller-Meeks in the 1st district and Zach Nunn in the 3rd saw their races shift from "toss-up" to "lean D." In the 1st district, the Democratic candidate is Christina Bohannan, while Sarah Trone Garriott is running in the 3rd. Trump won Iowa for all three of his presidential campaigns, including by nearly 14 points in 2024.
Iowa is also among the most competitive U.S. Senate races, with Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek vying for retiring Republican Joni Ernst's seat.
Pennsylvania
Three of Pennsylvania's House seats currently occupied by Republicans showed changes as well. The races for the 7th and 10th congressional districts, held by Ryan Mackenzie and Scott Perry, respectively, were change from "toss-up" to "lean D" by Cook. The 1st Congressional District, held by Republican Brian Fitzpatrick, shifted from "likely R" to "lean R."
Democrats running are: Bob Brooks (in the 7th District); Janelle Stelson, who is currently leading Perry in polls in the 10th; and Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie in the 1st. Trump won Pennsylvania by less than 2 points in 2024.
Michigan
Michigan's 4th Congressional District, held by Republican Bill Huizenga, moved from "lean R" to "toss-up" category. The Democratic candidate is state Senator Sean McCann. Trump won Michigan by 1.4 points in 2024.
Michigan is also tight in the Senate race between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers, a former congressman, to succeed retiring Democratic Senator Gary Peters.
Virginia
Virginia's 1st Congressional District, a seat held by Republican Rob Wittman, shifted from "lean R" to "toss-up." Democrat Shannon Taylor led Wittman by 4 points in a recent Washington Post poll. Trump lost Virginia to Kamala Harris by 5 points in 2024.
Arkansas
Arkansas' 2nd Congressional District, held by Republican French Hill, shifted from "solid R" to "likely R." The Democratic candidate is Chris Jones, a nuclear engineer who ran for governor in 2022. Trump won Arkansas by more than 30 points in 2024.
Indiana
Indiana's 5th Congressional District, held by Republican Victoria Spartz, shifted from "solid R" to "likely R." Spartz's Democratic opponent is state Senator JD Ford. Trump won Indiana by 19 points in 2024.
What Happens Next
In most states, early voting has begun and will continue up until Election Day on November 3.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Anna Skinner and Dave Siminoff.