After six weeks of the NFL season, Super Bowl prices on prediction markets are starting to become more clear. While the contending teams are the same bunch, their prices differ significantly between prediction markets. Knowing which site offers the better market is key in knowing where to invest.
Both Kalshi and Polymarket’s Super Bowl markets feature the San Francisco 49ers, Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, and Los Angeles Rams in that order. The payout prices are different, however.
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Price differences
Below are the price differences between Kalshi and Polymarket and what a potential profit would be for each of the top-5 teams on a $10 trade.
Kalshi Super Bowl market
- San Francisco 49ers: 14%, $52.86
- Buffalo Bills: 11%, $75.54
- Kansas City Chiefs: 11%, $75.54
- Los Angeles Rams: 8%, $107.37
- Baltimore Ravens: 9%, $94.44
Polymarket Super Bowl market
- San Francisco 49ers: 16%, $52.08
- Buffalo Bills: 12%, $71.13
- Kansas City Chiefs: 11%, $80.95
- Los Angeles Rams: 9%, $98.08
- Baltimore Ravens: 7%, $132.95
Depending on which prediction market you’re trading on and what team you're backing, potential profits could be better on one than the other. For example, the profit margin is higher on Kalshi when trading on the 49ers, Bills, and Rams. However, trading on the Chiefs and Ravens offers a higher profit on Polymarket.
Where the contenders sit
Of the top-5 on the board, the 49ers and Chiefs are the only ones who are undefeated at 5-0. Both rank top-five in scoring offense and points allowed.
The Bills pace the league in scoring with 32.8 points. They sit with a 5-1 record, with Josh Allen leading the way with his MVP-worthy performance thus far: 1,505 passing yards, nine passing touchdowns, 240 rushing yards, and eight rushing touchdowns.
Despite the Rams' 2-4 start, they remain a strong contender across prediction markets. They have a negative scoring differential, averaging 22.5 points on offense and allowing 23 points on defense. They are coming off their worst loss of the season in Week 6 to the Arizona Cardinals, who had just a 3.5 regular-season win total and were 13.5-point underdogs.
For the Ravens, this hinges on Lamar Jackson’s health. Jackson’s ankle sprain (suffered in Week 4) has already cost him two games. Despite the injury, Baltimore is 4-2 and boasts a top-10 offense.
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