Central Asian countries are expanding their trade with Kabul despite concerns about armed groups operating from Afghanistan. Russia has renewed warnings about militants seeking to infiltrate the region and is advocating cooperation with the Taliban authorities to contain them.
Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan are interested in trade, energy, and transport projects connecting the region with South Asia. Tajikistan has traditionally taken a more critical position toward the Taliban and places particular emphasis on securing its lengthy border with Afghanistan. Meanwhile, Russia and China are seeking guarantees from the Afghan authorities against the activities of armed organizations that threaten their security.
Speaking on October 16 at a joint conference of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Moscow, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said extremist organizations maintained a significant presence in Afghan provinces bordering Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. According to Lavrov, militants intend to use Afghan territory to expand their activities into Central Asia and Russia.
Lavrov identified Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), the Afghan affiliate of the Islamic State terrorist organization, also known as ISIS-K, as the main threat, citing Russian security agencies. The group opposes the Taliban, carries out attacks in Afghanistan, and has struck beyond its borders. The name Khorasan refers to a historical region encompassing parts of present-day Afghanistan, Iran, and Central Asia.
ISIS-K’s reach extends beyond Afghanistan’s border regions through propaganda, recruitment, and cross-border networks. As The Times of Central Asia previously reported, people from Central Asia have been implicated in ISIS-K activities beyond the region itself, including within migrant communities.
Lavrov claimed that militants in northern Afghanistan included ethnic Uyghurs, alongside fighters from Central Asia and the North Caucasus. His reference to Uyghurs echoes Beijing’s security concerns over Xinjiang, where China has used counterterrorism policies to justify sweeping repression. A 2022 UN assessment found that arbitrary detention and restrictions on the rights of Uyghurs and other predominantly Muslim groups could constitute crimes against humanity. The TASS report provided no evidence supporting his claims about the fighters’ origins. Lavrov also called for joint action against weapons and drug trafficking through Central Asia.
The Taliban as a Security Partner
Lavrov urged engagement with the Taliban authorities, who returned to power during the U.S. military withdrawal in August 2021. Russia formally recognized their government in July 2025. Moscow argues that the Taliban’s control of Afghan territory makes them responsible for security within the country, and is seeking international support for Kabul’s efforts to improve regional security.
While relying on the Taliban to contain armed groups, Moscow is simultaneously questioning their ability to do so. ISIS-K has attacked Taliban officials, giving Kabul a direct reason to confront the organization. That conflict, however, offers no assurance that the Taliban will act against other armed groups operating in Afghanistan.
China also favors working with Kabul on security, with concerns extending to the safety of Chinese nationals and regional trade routes. Two attacks launched from Afghan territory killed five Chinese nationals in Tajikistan in November 2025, prompting Beijing to urge its citizens to leave the border area. At the UN Security Council’s September meeting on Afghanistan, Beijing called for action against ISIS-K and al-Qaeda. It also named the East Turkestan Islamic Movement and Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). The TTP is waging an armed insurgency against the Pakistani government and operates along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.
Speaking at the summit of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA) in Baku on October 15, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged Kabul to take concrete measures to eliminate terrorist groups operating on Afghan territory. He also called for closer regional coordination on Afghanistan and humanitarian and development assistance for its people.
Terrorist Groups and Armed Opposition
The UN recorded an 11% year-on-year increase in safety and security incidents in Afghanistan between May 1 and July 31, 2026. During that period, armed opponents of the Taliban claimed 88 attacks across 21 of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces. The UN verified 55 of those incidents.
The figures for armed opposition attacks should not be conflated with international terrorist activity. Afghan opposition movements include Ahmad Massoud’s National Resistance Front and the Afghanistan Freedom Front, associated with former army chief of staff Yasin Zia. Their stated aim is to challenge the Taliban within Afghanistan, rather than launch attacks beyond its borders.
Internationally, there is also disagreement over the Taliban’s role in sheltering armed groups. Russia and China have called on Kabul to suppress terrorist activity, while the United States has accused the Taliban of providing sanctuary to terrorist organizations. Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid has denied links between the government and al-Qaeda. The Taliban’s ties to armed groups remain an obstacle to wider diplomatic recognition.
Speaking at the October 15–16 Moscow conference, SCO Deputy Secretary-General Ahmad Saidmurodzoda said the SCO-Afghanistan Contact Group’s work had been suspended. The group was established in 2005 to facilitate dialogue with Kabul. Saidmurodzoda described conditions in Afghanistan as broadly under control, but warned that the situation could deteriorate sharply.
The SCO is developing an Anti-Drug Center in Dushanbe and a Universal Center for Countering Security Challenges and Threats in Tashkent. Its membership includes China, Russia, and every Central Asian country except Turkmenistan. Unlike the CSTO, the SCO does not require members to defend one another militarily.
What Is at Stake for Central Asia?
As winter approaches, Afghanistan is facing a worsening humanitarian crisis. A joint forecast issued on October 15 by the UN World Food Programme and the Food and Agriculture Organization projects acute food insecurity for 19.2 million Afghans between November 2026 and April 2027. That represents 38% of the population. Five million people could face emergency levels of hunger.
The UN agencies identify unemployment and declining international assistance as drivers of the crisis. More than 1.2 million Afghans have been forced to return from Iran and Pakistan so far in 2026, increasing pressure on communities already struggling to support their residents. Border closures have further disrupted trade.
Moscow has highlighted the decline in opiate production as evidence that engagement with Kabul can produce results. Citing the UN Office on Drugs and Crime, Lavrov said production had fallen by approximately 90% since 2022. Existing drug stockpiles and trafficking networks, however, continue to pose a problem.
Afghanistan’s conflict with Pakistan is compounding these pressures. Islamabad has accused the Taliban of sheltering TTP militants and has carried out strikes on Afghan territory. Kabul denies providing sanctuary. Clashes along the border have interrupted trade and restricted travel, further straining the Afghan economy. For Central Asian countries seeking access to South Asian markets through Afghanistan, those disruptions threaten the reliability of the routes they are developing.