BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Friday, 16 October, 9:00 p.m. ET · Source: Brazilian press reports on the filing at the electoral court (TSE)
Key Facts
- What happened On Friday 16 October, Lula’s campaign coalition asked Brazil’s electoral court (TSE) to rule that the “Exército do Lula” (Lula’s Army) WhatsApp channel is not part of his campaign.
- The argument The coalition says the channel is the personal initiative of federal deputy André Janones and gets no campaign money, staff or promotion.
- The channel It has more than 4 million followers and was suspended by the court’s president on Sunday 11 October and has been the subject of a back-and-forth of orders since.
- The challenge A group of jurists announced it would ask the court to find its president, Kássio Nunes Marques, partial in the case.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 77.6% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 21.5% (16 October, 8:52 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 78% and Kalshi at 78% (Lula: 23% and 23%), as of 16 October, 8:40 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- Still open The court has not said whether it accepts the petition, and the challenge to its president has no reported reply.
The coalition behind President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva asked Brazil’s electoral court (TSE) on Friday 16 October to rule that a pro-Lula WhatsApp channel, “Exército do Lula” (Lula’s Army), is not part of his campaign. Metrópoles reported the filing at about 8:04 p.m. ET, nine days before the Brazil election 2026 runoff against Flávio Bolsonaro.
The channel has more than 4 million followers and is run by federal deputy André Janones of Minas Gerais. Flávio Bolsonaro, a senator for Rio de Janeiro and the conservative candidate, is Lula’s opponent in the vote.
What the Coalition Told the Court
The petition comes from the “Brasil Pronto pra Mais” (Brazil Ready for More) coalition, which groups the Workers’ Party (PT), PCdoB and PV federation with the PSB, PDT and PSOL-Rede parties. It argues that the channel is an individual initiative that expresses spontaneous support for Lula, according to
“This is not an official campaign structure nor mass messaging,” the coalition’s defence wrote, adding that the campaign has no say over what the channel carries. Its lawyers say the channel receives no money, goods or services from the campaign, the parties or the coalition, and that its address is not shown on official campaign profiles.
Why the Request Came Now
The filing came the same day the TSE approved new rules, adding articles 33-E to 33-G to Resolution 23.610 of 2019, on when a messaging channel counts as tied to a campaign. Our earlier report on the six WhatsApp tests sets out the criteria, which include campaign money, shared campaign material and official links to the channel.
The dispute began when Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign asked the court to take the channel down, saying it spread disinformation. On Sunday 11 October the court’s president, Kássio Nunes Marques, suspended it, and the electoral inspector-general, Ricardo Villas Bôas Cueva, later lifted the suspension, according to Metrópoles.
On Tuesday 13 October Nunes Marques again suspended the channel and demanded that the campaign register it officially, according to Times Brasil.
Jurists Challenge the Court’s President
The Brazilian Association of Jurists for Democracy (ABJD) announced on 14 October that it would ask the court to find Nunes Marques partial in the case, a step known in Brazil as a request for suspicion (suspeição). Among its arguments, reported by
SBT News, is that he acted in a matter that belonged to Villas Bôas Cueva.
The group also asks whether the same demands made of Janones’ channel were put to “Tropa do Flávio”, a channel linked to the conservative candidate. It notes that the case was never placed on the full court’s agenda, and the report carries no reply from Nunes Marques.
What It Means for US Readers
WhatsApp, owned by US company Meta, is where many Brazilians follow the campaign, so the court’s view of who controls a large channel shapes the final days. For investors, the point is less about polls than about the court’s role as referee in a race the markets see as close.
A ruling that ties the channel to Lula’s campaign would bring reporting duties and exposure to penalties under the new rules. A ruling that it is independent would leave Janones free to keep posting.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro a 77.6% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 21.5% (16 October, 8:52 p.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has seen about US$185.0 million traded, as shown in our Brazil election odds.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 77.6% · Lula 22.5% (US$185 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 78% · Lula 23%
As of 16 October, 8:40 pm ET (01:40 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
The court has not said when it will rule on the petition, and we have not seen the filing itself, only press reports of it. It is also unclear whether the ABJD request has been filed and will be heard before the vote.
No reply from Nunes Marques or from Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign to the coalition’s petition had been reported by Friday evening.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did Lula’s coalition ask Brazil’s electoral court?
On Friday 16 October it asked the TSE to rule that the “Exército do Lula” WhatsApp channel is not linked to the campaign. It calls the channel the individual initiative of deputy André Janones.
Who runs the “Exército do Lula” channel?
Federal deputy André Janones of Minas Gerais runs it. The channel has more than 4 million followers.
Why was the channel suspended?
Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign asked for its removal, citing disinformation. Court president Kássio Nunes Marques suspended it on Sunday 11 October, and another judge later lifted the suspension. On 13 October the court’s president again suspended it until the campaign registered it.
What are jurists asking about Nunes Marques?
The Brazilian Association of Jurists for Democracy said on 14 October it would ask the court to find him partial in the case. It says the matter belonged to the electoral inspector-general.
When is Brazil’s runoff election?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October in a runoff between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. The winner takes office as president.
Sources: Metrópoles, 16 October 2026; SBT News, October 2026; Times Brasil, 13 October 2026; O Liberal, October 2026.
This article was drafted with automated assistance and reviewed before publication. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
The Rio Times · Power Map
See who really holds power in Latin America
Click to open the Power Map →