When I talked about my concerns with this Devils team last week, the very first thing that I mentioned was their inability to play from ahead. To that point of the season, they hadn’t led in a game at all thanks to the fact that they regularly surrender the first goal of the game.
Until yesterday’s game in Detroit, the Devils had still failed to score first in any game this season.
Someone has to score first in a hockey game. Unless it’s 0-0 through 65 minutes before going to the skills competition known as the shootout, somebody has to score. It’s either going to be the Devils or whoever they play on any given night. And unfortunately, the Devils are paying the price when they do give up the first goal.
In the Sheldon Keefe era (not including Tuesday’s game at Detroit), the Devils have surrendered the first goal in 56% (95 out of 169) of their regular season games played.
The Devils record in those games is 30-59-6. Remember, this is over 95 games. The Devils would have a point total of 66 in those games.
If the Devils had a point total of 66 last season, they would’ve had the second best odds for the NHL draft lottery, as only Vancouver had fewer points. And remember, Vancouver did that over an 82 game season. We’re talking about a 95 game sample size over the course of two full seasons and a handful of games into the third! The Devils have literally been one of the worst teams in the NHL over the last two plus seasons when they get scored on first.
Conversely, the Devils record under Keefe when they score first is actually very good. They’re 56-14-4 in two plus seasons when it’s “1-0, us”. That’s a points percentage of .783, which if extrapolated over a full season, would put them in the conversation of the greatest regular season teams of all time.
To be clear, these Devils are nowhere near being the greatest of all time in anything. They’re also not nearly as bad as teams that should be picking first or second overall in the draft. They’re not going to have an 82 game season where they score first or get scored on first every single game. But as I pointed out last week, the numbers are what they are.
Teams that score the first goal of the game in the last two seasons win approximately 66.5% of the time.
You do the math of how often a team wins when they get scored on first.
Scoring first matters. And in a league that is as competitive as the NHL is where the margin of error is so small when it comes to those teams in the mushy middle, it’s a big part of why the Devils have struggled to separate themselves from the pack to be considered one of the better teams in the league.
Of course, there are a variety of reasons why this has happened. A big part of it has been the Devils continued inability to finish their scoring chances. And while the fancy stats may suggest the Devils haven’t been that bad in the first five minutes of games this season when it comes to creating said chances, expected goals aren’t real goals. You don’t get credit for almost scoring just as much as I wouldn’t get credit for writing my weekly column, but neglecting to click “publish”.
You also don’t have to look too deeply into the games this season to show that there’s more to it than just a lack of finish. The combination of penalties and the Devils not being buttoned up and ready to go is a factor as well, and that falls on the coaching staff as much as it does the players.
It’s one thing to surrender a first goal like the Devils did on Opening Night in a 6-on-5 situation thanks to a delayed penalty.
It’s another to do it on an ensuing power play after taking a minor penalty 10 seconds into a game like they did against Utah. Or on an ensuing power play after taking a minor penalty a few minutes into the game like they did against Vancouver.
But to do it against Ottawa in the manner they did takes the cake. It’s certainly the reason that inspired me to write about this topic this week.
It’s hard enough to score for the Devils at 5v5 or on the power play. It’s another thing entirely when you’re asking them to kill off roughly 9 minutes of penalties in the opening frame, effectively eliminating any chance of them scoring as long as they’re playing defense.
Yet surprisingly enough, the Devils did manage to kill off all of those penalties in the first period, leading one to hope they’d build momentum off of that entering the second period.
Only for that hope to immediately vanish nine seconds into the period when nobody bothered to pick up Shane Pinto for a point blank chance that he easily found the back of the net on.
1-0 them. Again.
As deflating as that is, I can’t say that’s out of the norm for this group. It’s become part of the fabric of who they are as a hockey team. Add in a second goal roughly eight minutes later and you knew this group wasn’t going to have an adequate or acceptable response. You knew they weren’t going to come back and win the game. I don’t really care what the advanced stats say from that point on when they already dug themselves a hole and score effects are a thing.
Allowing the other team to score first in your building sucks all the energy out of the fanbase. It’s not that Devils fans are looking to be negative when it comes to rooting for this team, but you gotta give us something to cheer about at the end of the day. Going 19-30-5 at home the last two plus seasons because you’re always chasing the game and allowing the first goal isn’t going to cut it. It’s not acceptable.
Colorado was 42-2-6 last season when scoring first. Dallas was 33-6-6. Carolina was 36-10-3. Boston was 31-8-4. Buffalo rounded out the top five at 34-8-5.
All of those teams were playoff teams. They all benefitted from jumping out to a lead and forcing the opposition to play catch up. There’s a reason why those teams were where they were in the standings and why the Devils were where they were.
“1-0 Them” might be a meme amongst Devils fans who spend way too much time online. But just because it’s a meme doesn’t mean it’s cute. It’s not cute. It’s not funny. It’s not something that should be discussed in a joking manner.
It’s a legitimate problem that this team has had and continues to have under Sheldon Keefe. It’s a major problem that they’re always chasing the game. It’s a problem that they’re never playing with the lead. It’s a problem that when they fall behind, their record is as poor as it is. For two plus seasons now under Keefe, they haven’t been good enough to overcome it.
Blame the lack of finish all you want. Blame the goaltenders. Blame the dumb penalties that lead to power play opportunities (and goals) against in the first place. Blame the players and the coaches. At the end of the day, it’s a byproduct of not having your own house in order that this continually continues to be an issue.
This Devils team is going nowhere until they consistently get out to better starts in games. And I’m not talking about fake good starts where they outshoot someone 12-2 and the charts look good but they fail to score first. I’m talking about the type of start where it’s 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 Devils and the other team is wondering what the heck just happened for a change.
Until that changes, this is who these Devils are.
(Stats and records in this article do not include the 10/13/26 game in Detroit)