Iran is escalating Hormuz ship attacks to keep oil prices high before the US midterms, two Iranian officials told Reuters. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude trades near $95.
However, the price chart complicates that plan, with WTI still down 10.5% over the past month. Meanwhile, a US military official says Iran has failed to stop oil exports from ramping up.
Why Do More Hormuz Attacks Mean Higher Oil Prices?
Maritime data cited by Reuters shows at least five incidents involving merchant ships over two days, including drone strikes.
Tehran also plans to widen its reach to the Gulf of Oman. Incidents off Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) suggest that may already be happening.
Attacks add shipping and insurance costs and complicate any return to normal traffic.
A JPMorgan tanker shortage note says Middle Eastern crude needs 35 more supertankers than the 2025 average, excluding Iranian cargoes.
A second official described the aim.
“Just when they think they are getting close to the point where prices will fall, we will push them away from it.”
Iranian official, Reuters
WTI needs a gain of about 5.7% to reach $100, while Brent trades near $106.
Can Trump Pull Oil Down Before November 3?
Trump has said he will not strike Iran again before the November 3 vote, which will decide control of Congress.
Meanwhile, Washington is maintaining a naval blockade of Iranian ports and extending sanctions.
Earlier this month, Group of Seven (G7) leaders agreed to an emergency reserve release of 100 million barrels. WTI was near $90 on October 5 and trades near $95.
A Fox News poll reported by AP in September found 61% of voters call gas prices a major household problem. That is up from 48% two years ago.
Trump said on October 5 that Hormuz no longer drives US gasoline prices, a gas price claim BeInCrypto examined.
Roughly a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade passed through the strait before the war. Iranian officials now say they are using that leverage to shape the US vote.
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