Global gas demand to peak at 190 EJ in 2035, DNV forecasts

BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 19. Global demand for natural gas will peak around 2035 at 190 exajoules (EJ), after which it will begin to decline.

According to the report by the international expert organization DNV, “Energy Transition Outlook 2026,” the previous DNV forecast had projected that demand would peak at 197 EJ in 2040.

“The geopolitical upheavals of 2026 led to a revision of the forecast for global gas demand. Concerns about energy security are accelerating the transition to renewable energy sources and nuclear power in many importing countries.

Despite reaching its peak earlier than previously projected, natural gas will continue to play a significant role in the global energy mix throughout the forecast period. By 2060, global demand for natural gas will decline by only about one-fifth.

Over the past decade, natural gas has accounted for about 27% of global primary energy supply. By the mid-2030s, its share will increase slightly, reaching about 28%, after which it will decline to about 25% by mid-century and to just over 20% by 2060.

At the same time, long-term demand for natural gas is expected to be higher than projected in DNV’s 2025 forecast. Specifically, in 2050 it will amount to about 175 EJ, compared to 164 EJ in the previous forecast, and in 2060 – about 140 EJ, compared to 130 EJ," DNV reports.

As noted in the report, this is because natural gas will replace more oil and coal than previously anticipated: “At the same time, the slower pace of development in the hydrogen energy sector will mean that the transition from natural gas to hydrogen will be less extensive than expected a year ago.”

The forecast for hydrogen has also been revised downward. Among the reasons, DNV cites persistently high production costs, limited government support, and ongoing inefficiencies in hydrogen production and trade.”

According to DNV’s forecast, demand for natural gas will grow in most sectors between 2026 and 2035: “After 2035, it will begin to decline in virtually all sectors, except for the manufacturing industry and hydrogen production, where further growth is expected.”

In addition, the report notes that factors contributing to the decline in demand include the transition to other energy sources, such as electricity and hydrogen, as well as improvements in energy efficiency.

"North America, the Middle East, and Africa (MEA) will lead natural gas production throughout the forecast period.

In 2026, North America will remain the world’s largest gas producer, with output of approximately 1,615 billion cubic meters. Production in the Middle East and Africa region will decline to approximately 1,100 billion cubic meters. “The Middle East and Africa region will once again become the largest producer of natural gas by around 2035, which is five years later than projected in the 2025 report,” the organization reports.