THE effects of the El Niño phenomenon, which is at a strong to very strong state, are expected to persist through the first half of 2027, bringing below-normal rainfall conditions to most parts of the country, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said on Wednesday.
“A strong to very strong El Niño is present in the tropical Pacific, and most climate models predict that El Niño is likely to persist until the first quarter of 2027, with its peak expected before the end of 2026,” Ana Liza S. Solis, chief of PAGASA’s climate monitoring and prediction section, said during the agency’s climate forum.
“And its associated impact may continue through the first half of 2027,” she added.
Ms. Solis warned that this could be the most severe El Niño since modern tracking began in 1950.
She explained that the effects of El Niño could vary by region, with heavy rainfall and flooding seen in parts of South America and prolonged drought conditions experienced in the Philippines.
PAGASA said nine provinces in the Philippines had experienced drought conditions as of Oct. 19, which means these areas had experienced three consecutive months of rainfall at least 60% below normal levels.
The number of provinces experiencing drought is projected to increase significantly to 54 by the end of the year.
By the end of March 2027, 87 provinces and highly urbanized cities are expected to experience drought conditions.
Although below-normal rainfall is expected across the country, Ms. Solis said the Philippines could still be affected by rain-bearing weather systems, such as the northeast monsoon, which is expected to begin by the end of October.
NATIONAL STATE OF CALAMITY?
The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council earlier reported at least 109 areas in the country had been placed under a state of calamity. Senator Francis Pancratius “Kiko” N. Pangilinan on Wednesday, however, urged the government to consider declaring a national state of calamity as El Niño causes agricultural losses and threatens farmers’ livelihoods.
At a Senate hearing on the Department of Agriculture’s (DA) 2027 budget, Mr. Pangilinan cited P6.87 billion in drought-related losses as of Sept. 26 and said only 2.53 million of the 11.12 million target beneficiaries had received assistance as of Oct. 6.
“I believe the Executive department should seriously consider a state of calamity declaration, so we can better address the challenges of Super El Niño,” he said.
He also cited DA estimates that El Niño and other weather-related shocks could reduce palay production by 700,000 metric tons in the second half of 2027, enough to meet the annual rice requirements of about 3.6 million Filipinos. — Edg Adrian A. Eva and Pexcel John Bacon