Dangote exports 87% of aviation fuel output as Nigeria records zero imports

Dangote Petroleum Refinery exported about 87 percent of its aviation fuel production in August, even as Nigeria recorded no imports of aviation turbine kerosene for 13 months through June 2026, BusinessDay analysis has revealed

The development has exposed the growing role of domestic refining in a market where local supply and export trade are expanding simultaneously.

The refinery produced an average of 24.48 million litres of aviation turbine kerosene (ATK) daily in August, exporting 21.30 million litres and recording domestic receipts of 3.07 million litres per day, according to an analysis of Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority.

The figures underscore the scale of Dangote’s aviation fuel exports relative to volumes entering Nigeria’s domestic market, although they do not establish whether local airlines have sufficient supplies at competitive prices.

Nigeria recorded zero ATK imports between June 2025 and June 2026, according to earlier regulatory data. The NMDPRA’s August 2026 factsheet did not provide a separate import figure, however, leaving the position beyond June unconfirmed.

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The absence of recorded imports suggests that domestic refineries supplied all reported aviation fuel receipts during the 13-month period.

But the data do not establish how much fuel individual airlines purchased locally, whether supplies reached all airports or how prices compared with those in competing aviation markets.

For Nigeria’s aviation industry, the distinction matters because the availability of domestically refined fuel does not automatically translate into lower operating costs.

Airlines remain exposed to the price at which marketers sell aviation fuel, transportation expenses and supply arrangements at individual airports.

“Domestic refining changes the supply equation, but the real test is whether airlines can purchase fuel at competitive prices and obtain reliable deliveries when they need them,” an aviation fuel marketer who pleaded anonymity said.

Dangote’s reported export volume was almost seven times the quantity recorded as received by the domestic market in August. Exports represented approximately 87 percent of production, while domestic receipts accounted for about 12.5 percent.

Exports and domestic receipts totalled 24.37 million litres daily, slightly below reported production of 24.48 million litres. The regulator did not explain the difference of 110,000 litres per day.

The figures also leave questions about how the refinery allocates output between overseas buyers and the Nigerian market, particularly as domestic aviation fuel consumption increases.

Domestic ATK receipts rose to approximately 3.1 million litres daily in August from 1.9 million litres in July, an increase of about 63 percent, according to the regulatory data reviewed.

Consumption climbed at a slower pace, increasing 22 percent to 2.8 million litres per day from 2.3 million litres. The resulting balance shifted from a daily deficit of 400,000 litres in July to a surplus of 300,000 litres in August.

Despite the improvement, reported consumption remained below the NMDPRA’s daily benchmark of three million litres.

The regulator measures consumption using volumes trucked out into the domestic market. The metric does not directly measure the fuel burned by aircraft and cannot independently establish whether airlines experienced shortages or unmet demand.

“The industry needs to look beyond how much fuel is produced. What matters to airlines is the price offered by suppliers, the consistency of deliveries and whether enough volume is available across the country,” Aisha Mohammed, an energy analyst at the Lagos-based Center for Development Studies.

Nigeria’s aviation fuel position also compares favourably with its stock coverage for other major petroleum products.

The NMDPRA’s August factsheet put national ATK stock sufficiency at 82.3 days, the highest among the four products assessed and well above the regulator’s minimum benchmark of 30 days.

Diesel recorded 51.6 days of stock coverage, while petrol had 22.9 days and liquefied petroleum gas, commonly known as cooking gas, had 17.2 days.