Jio IPO: Why Bharti Airtel share price is rising ahead of Rs 30,213 crore offer

Tariff hikes ahead
Nomura on October 14 said telecom operators seem to have prepared the ground for an impending tariff hike. It said Jio’s Rs 300 annual Prime membership, introduced in August 2026 set the stage for a tariff hike by providing price protection to its subscribers with an upfront
fee.

"In our view, the key driver for tariff hike timing may not be state elections, but Jio’s IPO, and its competitive positioning. We believe Jio slightly delayed its tariff hike vs our earlier expectation of mid-2026, so that it goes into the IPO as the clear leader on both subscribers and revenue market share. Airtel has been able to close the revenue market share in the past two tariff hikes, and Jio would want the narrative in its favour before its listing," Nomura said.

The foreign brokerage's base case remains a tariff hike sometime in the December quarter. It said Jio’s Rs 300 per month Prime membership pays off for subscribers only if there is a tariff hike before March.

Jio listing: Impact unlikely 
MOFSL on October 7 said while there is debate over whether shifting in telecom sector allocations with another large listed investible option, such assumptions are overblown.

"We believe concerns around a partial shift in the telecom allocation weight from Bharti to JPL are overblown, given JPL’s limited initial free float (vs. Bharti’s FII/DII ownership). Further, with expectations of a tariff hike soon after JPL’s IPO, we expect strong earnings delivery, which could also lead to potential multiple re-rating for both Bharti and JPL," it said.

In an October 10 note, Nomura said Bharti Airtel was its top pick in the sector, due to its higher proportion of premium subscribers, which should insulate it from downtrading and subscriber attrition following the anticipated tariff hike in Q3. It said Bharti’s
current valuation discount to JPL is unjustified and expected this gap to narrow, at minimum, once JPL goes public.

Bharti leads tariff hike cycle
UBS expects Bharti Airtel's tariff hike would influence 3-3.5 crore postpaid subscribers, which could lift Indian mobile revenue by 1-2 per cent and Ebitda by 1.1-5 per cent, even as some roaming revenue may be lost as offset.

JPMorgan, meanwhile, said it would watch out for any elevated churn for Bharti Airtel to peers given its unilateral tariff action on low end prepaid plans and postpaid hikes.