Adam Pankratz: David Eby thought this would be easy

David Eby called an election two years early because he thought he had an easy cakewalk to a large or even super majority. The most recent polls suggest it may well be Eby who has handed his opposition — the B.C. Conservative party led by Lorne Doerksen — a large or even super majority. If Eby loses, it will undoubtedly go down as one of the biggest self-inflicted political blunders this country has ever seen. 

A satirical twist on John F Kennedy’s immortal speech about going to the moon which can be found on posters and signs nowadays is “We do not do this because it is easy, but because we thought it would be easy.” If there is a phrase which encapsulates David Eby’s early call, this would undoubtedly be it.  

When the B.C. Conservatives were being driven into the ground under the failing leadership of Kerry-Lynne Findlay, the NDP premier saw an opportunity for himself. Findlay’s version of the Conservatives had shifted the party away from the broader tent image that was built under former leader John Rustad to something more hard edged. Her tenure as Conservative leader was plagued by infighting, with senior political and party staff being driven out and replaced with loyalists, who were subsequently also driven out. Eventually, more than a dozen MLAs left caucus, with more rumored to follow. 

Voters had clearly taken notice of the dysfunction and the Conservatives, which had enjoyed a 10 point lead in the polls in May when Findlay was elected leader, trailed the NDP by four points in mid-September and were only heading lower. The party was in a five alarm fire crisis mode. It was a political meltdown the likes of which we have rarely seen.  

Under such circumstances it is understandable that a premier might want to secure a larger majority and more years in power. Indeed, Eby couldn’t help himself and planned his early election call. But then Kerry-Lynne Findlay suddenly stepped down as leader. This changed everything, except Eby’s decision to proceed with a snap election. 

Despite the Conservatives’ ongoing turmoil following Findlay’s resignation, Eby’s decision to go early against a leaderless opposition, when he already held a majority government, struck many voters as overly self-serving and cynical. Further — and worse for Eby — with Findlay gone the Conservatives coalesced faster than anyone expected.

Rather than descend into a pit of more infighting, the remaining caucus selected the affable Lorne Doerkson, a former newspaper publisher and financial consultant, as leader. Under the relatively unknown leader, who crossed the floor from B.C. United to the Conservatives in 2024, the party steadied and the MLAs who had left returned. The Conservatives united with one focus: NDP defeat. 

For David Eby, Findlay’s resignation deprived him and the NDP of their main planned campaign talking point: fear of Donald Trump and the Americans. Eby had previously referred to Findlay as applying to be a “MAGA regional manager” and his early election call was clearly planned on hammering this message home, with or without Findlay present. It proved to be his first big mistake. 

On Sept. 22, the day of the election call, Eby relentlessly invoked the spectre of Donald Trump as the reason for holding the vote two years early. Indeed, it was nearly all he would talk about for the first weeks of the campaign. This message landed flat thanks mainly to Doerksen’s calm and steady presence. While Eby talked of putting up a “fire break” against Trump, images emerged of Doerksen actually fighting wildfires. Simply put, Doerksen was too down to earth and too likeable for the “MAGA” charge to stick easily to him. This caught Eby wrong footed and he never really recovered. 

Eby also managed to land himself in hot water when he appeared at a campaign stop wearing a Patagonia top. As I noted at the time, while Patagonia is a fine company, if your campaign is centred around being anti-American, perhaps you should not wear American brands, especially when B.C. is home to companies like Lululemon, MEC and Arc’teryx. This was when the campaign first began to noticeably turn on Eby and highlight his hypocrisy. 

A week on from his Patagonia gaffe, Eby was trying to pivot away from being anti-American and focus on cost of living. His chosen policy was a grocery price cap, taking aim at what in his view were unfair grocery pricing practices. Fair enough you might say, that may be a misguided policy, but the NDP is free to advocate for it. But after weeks of shrieking about how bad the Americans are and how we should all “Buy B.C.,” Eby chose to announce his policy in front of a Save-On-Foods grocery store. Not Walmart, but a locally-owned chain. Worse, Eby then freelanced to take a cheap shot at the chain’s owner, the province’s biggest business legend and philanthropist, Jim Pattison. The criticism was swift and harsh. Again, Eby was on the back foot. 

Finally, came the daycare bombshell. At a campaign stop on Oct. 12, Eby was asked if his family had taken advantage of B.C.’s notoriously hard to access $10 a day daycare spots. “Yes” he had, said Eby. Perhaps this, more than any other campaign misstep, could prove to be the killer blow for the NDP leader. While the other campaign misfires were ludicrous and hypocritical in their own right, his daycare blunder has serious “cut through.” That is to say, normal people going about their lives who may ignore other political disagreements, will definitely notice the hypocrisy here. Eby, who is married to a doctor and whose family likely has a household income north of $500,000, is taking a $10/day spot, which everyone knows is intended for families in need. That cuts through all other election noise and it sticks precisely because it stinks.  

In the latter days of the campaign, Eby has cut a forlorn and tired figure. He has no good answers for why the election was called and the media has done an excellent job of holding him to account for his government’s record. Pressed on Thursday if he had any regrets about how he has run his campaign, like being rude about Doerksen or Jim Pattison, Eby was defensive. Asked what the most common question he has received this election, Eby conceded it was “why are we having this election?” Again, he offered no compelling answer and twisted in the wind.   

David Eby called this election because he thought he had a clear and unobstructed stroll to a larger majority government. For him personally, anything other than a big NDP victory would be deflating, even if it’s still a win. It seems, however, that Eby’s hubris and opportunism are set to backfire in spectacular fashion. If Eby does indeed lose this election, it will be remembered as one of the worst run campaigns and largest political miscalculations in recent memory. 

Adam Pankratz is a lecturer at the University of British Columbia’s Sauder Sc

hool of Business. He ran for the federal Liberals in 2015, and in spring 2026 donated to Caroline Elliott’s bid to be leader of the B.C. Conservative party.