3 Ravens Who Should Surpass Their Prop Projections In Week 6

It’s hard not to gush about the way Ravens rookie offensive coordinator Declan Doyle is calling football games.

He has leaned into the run game in a major way, with offensive line issues all over the place and without top receiver Zay Flowers for long periods of time and forced to use backup quarterback Snoop Huntley on the road. He is smart enough to understand when to subjugate his overarching goals for this offense in order to do what it takes to try to win that week, and last Sunday we saw him run the ball a ton against what was the best rushing defense in the NFL knowing that’s what it would take to keep the game close.

And this week, with an even more daunting injury report, facing a Browns defense that can’t stop the run (30th in EPA and success rate) and that could be without their best defensive tackle and linebacker, or they might be limited by injury) and coming off a 200-yard rushing performance that involved a diverse array of players involved in that run game, we have delved into the prop markets in this game in calculated manner.

When you are handicapping these payouts you are assessing the tendencies of the coaches who control how much individuals play and how much they see the ball and where they see the ball. You are assessing where the books are likely to be sharpest and where less-obvious opportunities on the margins for plus-money returns are possible.

There are three of my favorite prop markets for Ravens players in Week 6:

(As a reminder - Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.  If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.)

Derrick Henry 2 TDs 4-1

He is running the ball more than any age 32 running back since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger and he has more TDs than anyone at that age through five weeks and is seeing more designed screens and targets than ever before in Baltimore and on pace for a career high in carries.

With no Lamar Jackson, expect even more short-yardage Wild Cat looks for him. With the Ravens dealing with injures to Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman and with Matthew Hibner ruled out and Mark Andrews failing in the clutch yet again, I expect Doyle to lean into volume running opportunities to finish drives against this defense and avoid the specter of turnovers.

Henry has already scored eight times and he’s scored twice in a game two times already this season. Have a hard time seeing either team build a big lead barring turnover meltdowns so we should see run-incentivized game flow. Even if the Browns sell out to stop it, Doyle tends to stick with it and they are finishing drives on the ground. The Browns have allowed just one rushing touchdown so far but that feels like noise to us this early in the season.

We loved Henry TD futures markets entering the season, for good reason.

(I’m not going to plug sportsbooks but shop around this is as +280 and as high as +400)

Snoop Huntley Long Rush O 11.5 (-105)

This guy can still scoot, the Browns defense hasn’t faced many QBs who have taken off against them, and they rank bottom 8 in EPA vs QB runs. They are playing zone defense 44% of the time – far and away the most in the NFL (18% is league average). That means a lot of defensive backs with their back to the QB.

This is the best defense the Ravens have faced, and it might not be close. They have legit cover corners and they are allowed less than 60% completions. Huntley’s legs are going to be called for more here. Our concern with playing the rush total is the potential for knee downs and some negative runs.

We’ve played this as high as 15+ for plus money.

Justice Hill 15+ Receiving Yds (+154)

Henry can’t be on the field all the time, he will need to be spelled, Doyle will want to get some tempo involved and there is always the two-minute drill. Would not be surprised at all if he catches three or more balls (his standard reception marker is 1.5) and the Browns can get after the QB and Doyle is going to lean into the screen game here to combat it.

We got the pony package we called for last week (Hill and Henry on the field together) for an explosive Hill run and I wouldn’t be shocked if we get an explosive pass out of that look this Sunday.

If Flowers is inhibited at all with the toe injury I will be looking at live betting options to get into Hill markets even more.

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