The Home Secretary’s threat to ban Eritreans from obtaining UK visas will have little impact on small boat arrivals or asylum claims from the east African country, experts say.
Shabana Mahmood has threatened to impose the ban if Eritrea does not take back illegal immigrants and criminals.
Eritrea is the leading country for small boat arrivals to the UK, and while most Eritreans who seek asylum are successful, the Home Office says return arrangements are vital for removing failed asylum seekers and foreign criminals.
“Further restricting access to visas will not stop refugees from fleeing Eritrea, it will simply force more of them to make dangerous journeys,” Sile Reynolds, head of asylum advocacy at Freedom from Torture, told The i Paper.
Tackling the small boats crisis is a key priority for the Government, which has introduced various measures such as the now-defunct one in, one out policy with France, and an endangerment offence to prosecute small boat pilots. Mahmood has also vowed to impose visa penalties on countries that refuse to take back their citizens.
Her ultimatum to Eritrea comes after its VIPs and officials were stripped of fast-track access to UK visas, and restrictions on movement were imposed on diplomats, barring them from travelling 37 miles beyond London without permission from the Foreign Office.
The measures mirror limitations placed on British officials in Eritrea’s capital, Asmara.
Why is the Home Office singling out Eritrea?
Earlier this year, Eritrea abruptly stopped co-operating with the UK to accept failed asylum seekers, the Home Office said. It has failed to issue emergency travel documents that enable those without a valid passport to return to their home country.
“Eritrea has had every chance to accept the return of criminals and those with no right to be in the UK. Unlike other countries, it has refused,” Mahmood said.
It is not the first time the Government has issued such threats. It first issued warnings towards Angola, Namibia and Democratic Republic of the Congo last year. All three countries eventually agreed to start working with the UK to take back illegal migrants and criminals – and so avoided full visa sanctions.
How will the policy affect small boat arrivals?
Eritrea is the top country of origin for small boat arrivals, accounting for 18 per cent of those who come to the UK via this route in the year ending in June.
The majority of Eritrean asylum seekers are successful in their applications. Around 92 per cent of who applied between 2021 and 2025 have been granted protection, according to analysis by Migration Observatory.
The initial asylum grant rate for Eritrean nationals in the UK was 84 per cent in the year ending June 2026, second highest behind Sudan (92 per cent), Home Office figures show.
The initial rate indicates the number granted asylum at the first decision the home office makes, before any appeal or reconsideration.
In terms of impact on Eritreans arriving by small boat, experts say relatively few will be affected by Mahmood’s threat.
Mihnea Cuibus, senior researcher at Migration Observatory, said: “Even if the policy succeeds in its aim of increasing returns, it is likely to have a limited effect on the number of Eritreans who come by small boat.
“This is in part because of the very high grant rate, meaning that Eritrean nationals are overwhelmingly likely to be granted protection in the UK once they cross the Channel.”
Could the warning boost the number of returnees?
If Eritrea responds in the same Angola, Namibia and the DRC did when faced with the threats of visa penalties, the number of returnees could increase.
But numbers show that this would be unlikely to significantly boost the number of returnees. According to Migration Observatory’s analysis, in the last five years, only 1,800 Eritreans received a final negative decision on their asylum application.
In comparison, the Home Office recorded more than 6,000 Eritrean small boat arrivals in the last year alone.
“It remains too early too tell if these agreements will lead to more people being returned in practice,” said Cuibus. “There has been a slight uptick in the number of voluntary returns to Namibia in the first half of 2026, but overall numbers remain very small.”
Why are so many Eritreans fleeing home?
Eritrea’s indefinite mandatory national service, and use of torture and detention, are among the key reasons many flee the country.
Reynolds, whose charity works with asylum seekers including many from Eritrea, said its staff see daily the physical and psychological scars people who have fled the country bear.
“It is only because safe alternative routes, like securing a visa to travel, have been criminalised or cut off altogether that so many of these men, women and children have resorted to dangerous small boats to reach safety,” she said.
Reynolds raised concerns that a returns agreement with Eritrea “will simply increase the risk that we send people back into the hands of their torturers”.
Jon Featonby, chief policy analyst at the Refugee Council, said: “It’s imperative that this policy only targets the Eritrean authorities, and does not undermine the UK’s moral and legal duty to provide protection to those who need it.”