Alaska Democratic candidate Mary Peltola has pulled ahead of Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan in a string of recent polls of their critical Senate race, but the lead remains narrow.
Alaska has become a prime pickup opportunity for Democrats as they hope to ride a blue wave back into majorities in both the House and Senate. Peltola, a former Congresswoman in the state, has proven to be a strong candidate and the GOP has faced headwinds as President Donald Trump's approval ratings continue to slide along with voters' views on the economy and the Iran war.
Democrats need to defend all of their Senate seats and flip four others to take the majority in the upper chamber. Only one state—Maine—features a race where an incumbent Republican is trying to defend their seat in a state that Kamala Harris won in 2024. Democrats have had to broaden their battlefield to target states where Trump won by double digits in 2024, including Alaska.
While the state last elected a Democrat to the Senate in 2008, it has not backed a Democrat for the White House since 1964 and has long been considered a safe zone for Republicans.
Newsweek reached out to Peltola’s campaign and Sullivan’s campaign by email for comment on Tuesday morning.
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Peltola Holds a Narrow Lead
Peltola held a 44 percent to 42 percent lead over Sullivan, who is endorsed by Trump, in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted between October 12 and October 15. The survey polled 775 Alaska likely voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, carrying a 95 percent level of confidence.
An InsiderAdvantage poll conducted between October 9 and October 10 gave the former congresswoman an even wider margin of 5 percent over Sullivan, with the Democrat obtaining the support of 48 percent of the 1,200 likely voters surveyed and the Republican 43 percent in a four-way ballot.
Two other Republican candidates, Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. and Gerald L. Heikes, received 1.7 percent and 2.2 percent of the vote, respectively, while 5.3 percent of likely voters were undecided. The poll’s margin of error was plus or minus 2.83 percentage points.
In a hypothetical second round of voting in that poll, where Sullivan Jr. and Heikes were eliminated, 50.1 percent of voters threw their support behind Peltola, while 48.0 percent backed the incumbent Republican.
Peltola’s Lead Has Been Consistent Over Past Few Weeks
Other polling conducted this month has also pointed in Peltola’s direction, but the contest appears to remain extraordinarily tight.
Public Policy Polling’s survey from October 14 to October 15 put Peltola at 48 percent and Sullivan at 47 percent, while Alaska Survey Research found Peltola leading 47 percent to 45 percent in an October 1 to October 3 four-way survey. The first poll was conducted among 578 registered voters, while the second surveyed 1,512 likely voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
A Quantus Insights poll conducted from September 28 to September 30 showed the two candidates tied at 47 percent, with the gap between the two far smaller than the survey’s margin of error.
Peltola and Sullivan Clash Over Iran War, Energy Production and Fuel Prices
Over the past few months, Peltola and Sullivan have traded increasingly pointed attacks, with both campaigns seeking to cast the other candidate as out of step with Alaskans.
Those divisions were on full display during an October 15 debate, as the candidates clashed over the war with Iran, energy production and the high costs of fuel in the state.
Peltola sought to draw a direct line between the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the financial pressures facing Alaskans, accusing Sullivan of voting 14 times in favor of the war. Trump, who has said the war is necessary to prevent Iran from having a nuclear weapon, has endorsed Sullivan and traveled to the state last week to support Sullivan’s campaign.
The Republican incumbent, meanwhile, argued that greater energy production in Alaska could help bring prices down and attacked Peltola’s record in Congress, saying the former representative had voted against producing more Alaskan energy.
Foreign policy was another point of contention. Both candidates opposed the prospect of importing Russian diesel, with Sullivan saying the plan was “not a good idea” and Peltola describing buying fuel from a “known adversary”—Russia’s leader Vladimir Putin—as a “terrible” and “foolish” decision.
Peltola also used the debate to argue for continued support for Ukraine and criticized the Trump administration’s treatment of the U.S. traditional allies.
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How Alaska's Senate Race Matters in the Midterms
Democrats have seized on Alaska as a prime flip opportunity in 2026. They need to flip four GOP-held seats to gain the majority and will need to flip at least two seats in states that Trump won by double digits in 2024.
Alaska has become a prime target falling along these lines, along with Texas, Ohio and Iowa.
Peltola has won a statewide election before and is running as a centrist, targeting independent voters and disillusioned moderate Republicans who might not back a candidate who has been endorsed by Trump.
Political forecaster the Cook Political Report rates the Senate race as a toss-up and Sabato's Crystal Ball has shifted the state to the Leans Democrat category.
Vote Counting Might Take Weeks, Delaying Race’s Results
Even after voters cast their ballots on November 3, a winner in the Alaska Senate race may take weeks to be declared.
The state uses ranked choice voting for federal and state general elections, with first-choice results reported initially and additional ranked-choice tabulation conducted if necessary.
Close elections can take up to 15 days to resolve because Alaska continues receiving eligible absentee ballots during its postelection counting window.
With Peltola and Sullivan separated by such narrow margins in the latest polling, the state could be one of the Senate map’s key unresolved races well beyond election night.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Matthew Robinson and Geoffrey Rowland.