2027: Why Atiku is being apprehensive – Keyamo

The Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo, has accused former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar of being apprehensive about the growing political support enjoyed by the All Progressives Congress (APC) in northern Nigeria ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

Keyamo, a Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN), made the allegation in a statement titled, “Why Atiku Abubakar Is Particularly Jittery About the Kaduna Flag-off,” in which he criticised the former vice-president over his reported online attacks against the ruling party ahead of its campaign rally in Kaduna State.

The minister argued that the APC’s political structures in the North could pose a challenge to Atiku’s electoral calculations, particularly if the former vice-president intends to rely heavily on votes from the region to secure victory in the next presidential election.

Atiku, who contested the 2023 presidential election under the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), has been associated with the African Democratic Congress (ADC) in the emerging political realignments ahead of the 2027 polls.

Keyamo’s remarks come amid increasing political activity and exchanges between supporters of the ruling party and opposition figures as political actors begin positioning themselves for the next general elections.

Keyamo questions videos of removed Tinubu posters

In the statement, Keyamo alleged that some videos circulating on social media showing the removal of campaign posters bearing the image of President Bola Tinubu were staged to create the impression that the President had lost political support in northern Nigeria.

He suggested that the videos were intended to undermine the APC’s standing in the region ahead of its Kaduna rally.

However, the minister did not provide evidence in the statement to substantiate his allegation that the videos were staged.

The controversy surrounding the videos forms part of the wider political exchanges between the ruling party and opposition figures as they seek to influence public perception of their respective levels of support.

Keyamo maintained that the APC’s activities in Kaduna and other northern states should not be interpreted as evidence of political weakness, arguing instead that the party retained structures capable of mobilising voters across the region.

Minister dismisses purported N2.3tn rally letter

Keyamo also dismissed as fake a purported letter alleging that N2.3 trillion had been earmarked for the APC’s Kaduna campaign rally.

He described the document as an attempt to portray the ruling party as relying on financial inducements to attract supporters to its political events.

The minister argued that the allegation was designed to damage the party’s image and cast doubt on the level of public support it commands in northern Nigeria.

However, Keyamo did not provide supporting evidence in the statement to establish the origin of the purported letter or independently demonstrate its authenticity or otherwise.

The claim therefore remained an allegation made by the minister as part of his response to the political controversy surrounding the rally.

Keyamo cites Atiku’s 2023 electoral performance

In explaining his position, Keyamo referred to the outcome of the 2023 presidential election, arguing that Atiku’s performance across the country exposed the challenges confronting the former vice-president ahead of another presidential contest.

The minister claimed that Atiku lost across the North-Central states and all Southern states except Osun State during the election.

He argued that these results demonstrated the difficulty Atiku could face if he relied predominantly on northern votes without making substantial gains in the Middle Belt and Southern parts of the country.

Keyamo also alleged that Atiku had initially expected Tinubu to have limited electoral appeal in the North but was now concerned about the APC’s political organisation and support base in the region.

According to the minister, the ruling party’s presence across northern states could complicate any opposition strategy built around securing a commanding majority of votes from the region.

His argument was that electoral success in the North alone might not guarantee victory in 2027 if the opposition failed to secure competitive results in other geopolitical zones.

Minister compares Atiku with Buhari

Keyamo further compared Atiku’s political circumstances with those of former President Muhammadu Buhari, who secured substantial northern support during the 2015 presidential election.

He argued that the political backgrounds and electoral appeal of the two former presidential candidates were different, suggesting that Atiku could not automatically replicate Buhari’s success by relying on northern votes.

The minister also made corruption-related allegations against Atiku in the statement but did not present supporting evidence for those claims in the material provided.

The comparison formed part of Keyamo’s broader argument that the political conditions that helped Buhari win the presidency in 2015 should not necessarily be assumed to favour Atiku in the 2027 election.

2027 contest intensifies political exchanges

The exchange highlights the intensifying political competition ahead of the 2027 general elections, as the APC and opposition figures seek to consolidate support across Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones.

For the ruling party, northern Nigeria remains an important battleground because of the region’s electoral significance, while opposition politicians face the challenge of building broad coalitions capable of attracting votes across regional and party lines.

Keyamo’s comments reflect the APC’s position that its political structures in the North remain a significant factor in the coming contest.

However, the minister’s allegations about the purportedly staged videos, the campaign funding letter and Atiku’s political calculations were not independently substantiated in the statement.

The extent to which the APC and opposition parties can translate their political activities into votes will ultimately be determined by the electorate when Nigerians go to the polls in 2027.