At some point, Kansas is going to have to actually win a football game against a Big 12 opponent — preferably before Thanksgiving.
Right?
Right??
RIGHT???
Yeah, I’m not so sure I really believe that either.
The Jayhawks return to Lawrence for Homecoming this Saturday at 2-4 overall and 0-3 in conference play. Following losses to Arizona State, Utah, and K-State, KU finds itself in a familiar position: trying to explain how a team that occasionally looks pretty good can keep finding ways to lose football games.
Last week, Kansas lost 35-24 to K-State despite another 100-yard rushing performance from Isaiah Marshall. Unfortunately, the Wildcats rushed for 359 yards, averaged seven yards per carry, and generally treated the KU defense as a minor inconvenience.
That was less than ideal.
Now comes Baylor, which has yet to be evicted from the Big 12. The Bears have one of the conference’s better defenses, but they’re coming off a 17-6 home loss to TCU in which they managed just 310 yards on 87 plays and failed to score a touchdown.
So we’ve got a Kansas team that can’t seem to stop losing and a Baylor team that suddenly forgot how to score. Fun!
More seriously, this has become a rather important game for Lance Leipold and the Jayhawks. At 2-4, Kansas needs to win four of its final six games to reach bowl eligibility. Baylor is a good team, but the Bears aren’t unbeatable. They’re a slight road favorite coming off a game in which they scored six points at home.
If Kansas is going to salvage something from 2026, well, the time is now.
Pregame
Kansas (2-4, 0-3 Big 12) vs. Baylor (4-2, 2-1 Big 12)
Saturday, October 24, 2026 — 12:00 PM CT
Kansas World War I Memorial Stadium — Lawrence, Kansas
TV: TNT, truTV, and HBO Max (J.B. Long, Mike Golic Jr., Allie LaForce)
Series History: Baylor leads 19-4.
This will be the 24th meeting between Kansas and Baylor, with the Bears holding a rather depressing 19-4 advantage in the all-time series. Baylor has won 14 consecutive meetings, with KU’s last victory coming in 2007.
The Bears haven’t visited Lawrence since 2021, when they defeated Kansas 45-7 in Lance Leipold’s first Big 12 game. The most recent meeting came in 2024, a 45-17 Baylor victory in Waco. (I’m noticing a pattern already.)
Saturday will be KU’s 114th Homecoming game. Kansas has won four consecutive Homecoming contests, including the memorable upset of #6 Oklahoma in 2023.
The Jayhawks are also 1-0 against Baylor on Homecoming, having defeated the Bears 28-21 in 2003, so, you know, there’s that for whatever it’s worth.
First Down
Can Kansas run the ball against Baylor?
Kansas is averaging 6.5 yards per offensive play and 5.2 yards per rushing attempt this season. Those are pretty respectable numbers. Baylor, meanwhile, is allowing just 4.6 yards per play and 2.6 yards per rush. The Bears have surrendered only four rushing touchdowns and two runs of 20 or more yards in six games.
Something’s gotta give.
Unfortunately, a closer look at Kansas’ numbers suggests which way that might go.
Against Big 12 competition, KU’s rushing average drops to 4.2 yards per carry. The Jayhawks managed 4.4 against Arizona State, an ugly 2.8 against Utah, and 4.9 against K-State. And Baylor’s defense has been considerably more effective against the run than any of those opponents.
Dylan Edwards leads Kansas with 375 rushing yards, just ahead of Isaiah Marshall’s 372. Marshall rushed for 117 yards against K-State, demonstrating how valuable his mobility can be when the traditional running game struggles. But there’s a difference between having a quarterback who can extend plays with his legs and having a consistently effective rushing attack.
The concern isn’t simply whether Kansas can break off a few big runs. Baylor hasn’t allowed many of those. The question is whether KU can consistently pick up four or five yards on early downs, avoid obvious passing situations, and keep Marshall from having to manufacture something out of nothing.
Because if Baylor can make Kansas one-dimensional, this could will be a long afternoon.
Second Down
Can the KU defensive line take advantage of Baylor’s offensive line?
Baylor hasn’t exactly been overwhelming on the ground, averaging just 3.8 yards per rushing attempt and 5.3 yards per offensive play. Their leading rusher, Dawson Pendergrass, has 327 yards in six games., but you wouldn’t have known it from watching the Bears against TCU. Baylor managed just 54 rushing yards, averaged 1.6 yards per carry, and allowed four sacks. The Bears ran 87 offensive plays and somehow turned them into six points.
That is an impressive amount of work for very little reward.
Following the game, Baylor coach Dave Aranda took responsibility for the offensive line’s performance, acknowledging that the unit hadn’t played with the toughness and dependability he expected.
Leroy Harris III has been one of the few consistent bright spots on the Jayhawk defense. Harris has 9.5 tackles for loss, three sacks, and three forced fumbles through six games. His 1.58 TFL per game rank among the national leaders. However, K-State may have put on film how to limit Harris’ effectiveness. On the other end of the D-line, David Santiago has also been effective at getting into opposing backfields, giving Kansas at least a couple of defenders capable of disrupting Baylor’s offense before plays can develop.
The question is whether Kansas can turn individual disruption into something resembling consistent defensive success. Against K-State, the Jayhawks were repeatedly beaten at the point of attack, surrendered explosive rushing plays, and struggled to get ball carriers on the ground. That’s a serious concern against anybody, but Baylor’s running game hasn’t exactly been overwhelming. The Bears average 150.2 rushing yards per game, ranking 80th nationally. Their leading rusher, Dawson Pendergrass, has 327 yards in six games.
So, KU should have opportunities to win some battles up front.
And if Harris and company can put Baylor into predictable passing situations, they might actually be able to make life uncomfortable for DJ Lagway.
Which brings us to…
Third Down
Baylor quarterbacks have completed just 55.5% of their passes this season, averaging 6.7 yards per attempt. Those aren’t particularly impressive numbers for an offense that has thrown the ball 256 times in six games. And, the numbers get considerably worse when you look specifically at DJ Lagway.
The former Florida quarterback has completed exactly 50% of his passes, averaging just 6.0 yards per attempt. He’s thrown eight touchdowns against three interceptions, but consistency has been a problem. Last week against TCU, Lagway completed 22 of 53 passes for 256 yards, one interception, and zero touchdowns. That’s 4.8 yards per attempt.
Not great, Bob!
Meanwhile, Kansas has allowed opponents to complete 56.5% of their passes, averaging 6.8 yards per attempt. Those are respectable numbers, although they become considerably less impressive against Big 12 competition: 62.8% completions, 7.2 yards per attempt, and five passing touchdowns in three games.
So perhaps KU’s pass defense isn’t quite as good as the season-long numbers suggest. There is also the small matter of Kansas having intercepted exactly one pass all season. ONE.
Baylor receiver Gavin Freeman presents another problem. Freeman has 49 receptions for 555 yards and has emerged as Lagway’s most reliable target. Kansas will need to account for him without allowing the Bears to create explosive plays elsewhere. The key may be getting pressure on Lagway. Kansas has managed just six sacks in six games, and as we discussed in Second Down, Baylor’s offensive line was a mess against TCU.
Lagway has the arm talent to punish a defense that gives him time. But he’s also been inaccurate, particularly when forced into difficult situations. If Kansas can generate pressure without sacrificing coverage, there should be opportunities to get Baylor off the field.
Maybe even intercept another pass.
Wouldn’t that be something?
Fourth Down
Baylor is allowing 240 passing yards per game, which ranks near the bottom of the country. Sounds encouraging, right?
Not so fast, my friend.
Opposing quarterbacks are completing just 59.6% of their passes against the Bears, averaging only 6.3 yards per attempt. Baylor has also intercepted six passes while allowing just five passing touchdowns.
Oh, and the Bears have recorded 22 sacks in six games.
So while Baylor’s passing defense looks vulnerable based on total yardage, its efficiency numbers suggest something considerably different. Opponents are throwing the ball frequently, but they aren’t necessarily doing it effectively. That could be a problem for Isaiah Marshall.
Marshall is averaging 7.7 yards per passing attempt this season, which isn’t bad. But he’s completing only 52.7% of his passes, with nine touchdowns and five interceptions. Against Big 12 competition, he’s completed exactly half his passes, averaging 7.5 yards per attempt.
The Jayhawks have demonstrated an ability to generate explosive passing plays. The problem is what happens between those plays. Marshall completed just 12 of 26 passes against Kansas State, and his inconsistency has made it difficult for Kansas to sustain drives when the running game isn’t working. Nik McMillan has been KU’s most reliable receiving threat, catching 23 passes for 400 yards and four touchdowns. But Kansas is going to need more than the occasional big play to move the ball against this defense.
Making matters worse, Baylor has been excellent at pressuring opposing quarterbacks, and KU’s offensive line may be dealing with additional personnel issues. Center Kasen Carpenter is doubtful, while Connor Stroh’s status remains uncertain. If Baylor can contain Kansas’ rushing attack, the Bears should be able to create obvious passing situations and turn their pass rush loose.
Marshall doesn’t need to throw for 350 yards to win this game. But he probably needs to complete more than half his passes, protect the football, and keep Kansas out of third-and-long.
Because Baylor’s defense is a lot better against the pass than its national yardage ranking would suggest.
Prediction
I want to keep looking at this matchup and finding reasons to believe Kansas can win. But then I remember that the KU Football program was cursed by the Sanderson sisters back in 1693 and so that’s why we don’t get to have nice things.
Baylor has an excellent defense, but the Bears have struggled offensively. Kansas has shown a productive rushing attack, and Baylor’s relatively high passing yardage allowed offers some hope that Marshall can have a good afternoon. Unfortunately, a closer look at the numbers makes that hope considerably less convincing. The Jayhawks are also at home, where they’ve generally been much more comfortable than on the road. (Note: Aren’t all teams?)
But like last week, I’ve seen this movie before.
Kansas has been competitive for stretches against good teams. The Jayhawks have moved the football, made defensive stops, and demonstrated enough ability to suggest they should be better than their record. And then something happens.
A turnover. A missed tackle. A failed fourth-down conversion. A special teams adventure. A drive that reaches the red zone before inexplicably turning into absolutely nothing. Pick your favorite.
I think Baylor’s defense is going to make it difficult for Kansas to establish the running game, and I haven’t seen enough from Marshall as a passer to confidently predict that he’ll compensate for it.
On the other side, Baylor’s offensive struggles give me some reason for optimism, particularly if Harris and Santiago can pressure Lagway. Ultimately, though, I need to see Kansas put together four quarters of competent football against a quality opponent before I’m ready to predict it.
Baylor 27, Kansas 20.
I would very much enjoy being wrong.
Extra Point
The last time Kansas hosted Baylor on Homecoming was October 18, 2003. The Jayhawks, coached by Mark Mangino, trailed 14-7 before Bill Whittemore connected with Charles Gordon for an 18-yard touchdown just before halftime.
Whittemore later found Mark Simmons for a 40-yard touchdown early in the fourth quarter, and John Randle added a 12-yard rushing score to give Kansas a 28-14 lead. Baylor made things interesting with a late touchdown, but Banks Floodman intercepted a pass with less than two minutes remaining to preserve the 28-21 victory.
Here’s the fun part: Entering that game, Baylor had lost 30 consecutive Big 12 road games dating back to the conference’s formation in 1996. Kansas was trying to avoid becoming the first conference opponent to lose to the Bears at home.
The Jayhawks survived.
Twenty-three years later, Baylor has won 14 straight against Kansas.
College football has a funny way of turning things around.
Hocus pocus, anybody?