As I've done over the past few years, I'll preview the biggest games of the weekend and give my official predictions. Let's keep this season going and preview the biggest Week 8 games from across the FCS landscape.
2026 Prediction Record: 89-36
2022-25 Prediction Record: 540-175 (75.5%)
No. 22 Weber State at No. 3 Montana State
Nobody predicted that Weber State would be tied for the top spot in the Big Sky going into Week 8. That's exactly where the Wildcats find themselves after a 4-1 start in conference play under head coach Eric Kjar. The Wildcats are on a three-game winning streak, which includes wins over Idaho State and Idaho. This will be their biggest test of the season, but we've seen some insane upsets this year. Can the Wildcats find a way to stun the Bobcats in Bozeman?
On the other side, Montana State has started to get healthy, which could be a major issue for the rest of the FCS. The Bobcats looked dominant in a win over Eastern Washington last weekend, moving to 6-1 overall with a 36-point win on the road in Cheney. With the return of Justin Lamson, Adam Jones, and Caden Dowler, this team has a real chance to remind the country exactly who they are over the next few games. We'll see if Taco Dowler makes a return this weekend, but regardless, the Bobcats have plenty of dangerous weapons for Lamson to utilize offensively.
This game will be determined by Weber State's ability to get Montana State's offense off the field. That's much easier said than done, but the Wildcats are not going to be able to win a shootout on the road against this team. Weber State's defense has been average most of the year, allowing over 34 points per game and nearly 6.0 yards per play.
As expected, Montana State has been elite at running the football, surpassing the 220-yard mark in three consecutive games. Despite missing some time due to injury, Adam Jones still leads the Bobcats with 408 rushing yards and 8 TDs, while Jared White and Colson Coon have combined for 476 yards and 4 TDs behind him. Coon was unavailable last week, but should be able to return this weekend.
My biggest concern for Weber State is the lack of consistency in the passing game, which has been held to under 175 yards in each of the past two games. I don't think the Wildcats are going to be able to be one-dimensional against this defense, which is going to put some pressure on Nate Dahle to make some plays downfield.
Since taking over the starting job, Dahle has only completed 50% of his passes for 1,591 passing yards, 16 passing TDs, and 10 INTs. The turnovers are another worry, because the Bobcats will make Dahle pay if he forces the ball into dangerous situations. The Bobcats have 9 INTs this season, which ranks 2nd in the Big Sky.
Weber State has already exceeded all expectations this season, but there are levels to this. I think this is where the Wildcats run into a machine, which is a healthy Montana State team in Bozeman. I like the Bobcats to win this one by multiple scores at home.
Prediction: Montana State (45-20)
No. 23 Southeastern Louisiana at No. 2 Stephen F. Austin
If any team has the right to feel disrespected by the committee's Top 10 ranking, it's Stephen F. Austin. The Lumberjacks are 7-0, but lack a true signature win right now, plus their strength of schedule is one of the lowest among the top teams in the FCS. This is finally their chance to add a ranked win to their resume and start building their case for one of the top seeds in the bracket.
Southeastern Louisiana had a shaky start to the year, losing to Houston Christian in Week 0, but has rebounded with an FBS win over Louisiana-Monroe and added a Top 10 FCS win over Lamar last weekend. The Lions played two FBS games, so they are currently 4-3, which makes this weekend's game extremely important if they want to play their way into an at-large bid down the stretch.
The Lions have to establish the run or this game is going to be over before it even begins. Southeastern Louisiana has only thrown for 200 or more yards in one game this season. They rank 9th in the SLC, averaging 169.1 passing yards per game, but I'm not sure that's a recipe for success against this Stephen F. Austin defense.
The Lumberjacks have the No. 1 rushing defense in the SLC, holding opponents to 3.2 yards per carry. They lead the FCS with 26 sacks, averaging 3.7 per game, while also ranking 5th nationally with 58 TFLs. If the Lions cannot establish the run, the Lumberjacks have the ability to pin their ears back and get after Kyle Lowe in 3rd-and-long situations, which is not where this SLU offense thrives.
Stephen F. Austin has really done an excellent job of establishing its own rushing attack this season, rolling up over 200 yards in all but two games. They put up a season-high 354 rushing yards in a win over Nicholls last week. The Lions need to find a way to stop Speedy Jones and Jaylen Jenkins, who have combined for over 800 rushing yards and 5 rushing TDs.
Lowe is going to have to have the best game of his career if the Lions are going to pull off this upset. Unfortunately, I think Stephen F. Austin has too much talent defensively, plus Gavin Rutherford has the offense rolling right now. I'm going with the Lumberjacks to pick up their first ranked win of the season over the Lions.
Prediction: Stephen F. Austin (38-17)
No. 6 North Dakota at No. 8 South Dakota
This is a massive MVFC matchup that could have real postseason seeding implications for both teams. North Dakota is coming off a physical win over South Dakota State, but can they carry that momentum on the road into the DakotaDome, where the Coyotes have been dominant this season?
South Dakota sits at 6-2 overall and has won three consecutive games since its loss to Youngstown State. The Coyotes ranked 8th in the playoff committee's first rankings, but they are still searching for a real signature win for their resume. They have a big opportunity this weekend to do that, plus both teams are looking to remain in a tight MVFC race, which features five teams with one conference loss.
The biggest storyline is whether Charles Pierre Jr. will be fully healthy after sitting out last week's game against Murray State. He will reportedly return this weekend, but the Coyotes need him to be 100% in this game, especially since the run game will be an important key to the game if South Dakota is going to win. Pierre leads the Coyotes with 585 rushing yards and 7 rushing TDs.
This South Dakota offense works best when Austyn Modrzewski can work off the play action, where he averages 11.4 yards per attempt, compared to 7.9 on his other pass attempts. Modrzewski is one of the most talented freshman quarterbacks I've seen at this level, completing 66.5% of his passes for 1,734 yards, 22 passing TDs, and 6 INTs. This is a big test for the talented freshman, which is why the Coyotes will want to put him in good situations with a strong run game.
North Dakota's defense has been elite against the run this season, allowing only 2.9 yards per carry in conference play. South Dakota needs to avoid 2nd/3rd-and-long situations because this North Dakota defense can really get after the quarterback, posting 11 sacks in only 4 conference games. Lance Rucker is finally back and led this team with 7 pressures last week in his first start of the year.
The other thing I'll be watching is whether South Dakota's defense can keep North Dakota's offense behind the chains and off schedule. It's something SDSU was unable to do consistently last week, but the Coyotes are going to have to generate some negative plays and find creative ways to get after Jerry Kaminski.
Kaminski has only been pressured on 27% of his dropbacks, but has not played well when teams have been able to generate some pressure. He's only completing 47.5% of his passes for 5.2 yards per attempt when pressured. South Dakota has not been great at getting after opposing quarterbacks, which cost them against Youngstown State. The Coyotes need to find production out of Chris Dixon, Nathan Laperi, or Isaiah Wray.
The Fighting Hawks feature a solid 1-2 punch in the backfield with Charles Langama and Matt Lawson. The duo has combined for over 900 rushing yards and 9 TDs, led by Langama with over 7.9 yards per carry. The Coyotes are allowing 4.9 yards per carry in conference play, but have been solid outside of an outlier performance against Youngstown State.
I am concerned about how North Dakota is able to respond after an emotional, physical win over South Dakota State. Plus, the Coyotes have looked like a different team inside the DakotaDome, but I still can't overlook the matchup on the field. I'm going with North Dakota in another physical MVFC battle, trusting the Fighting Hawks to get some key defensive stops to secure the win on the road.
Prediction: North Dakota (24-21)
Quick-Hit Week 8 Predictions:
No. 9 Austin Peay 34, North Alabama 24
Austin Peay has to play better than it did last week in a tricky road game against North Alabama. The Lions have really put it together this season, but do they have enough offense to hold off the Govs here? I think Chris Parson plays much better than what we saw last weekend, plus the Govs have been elite against the run, which is going to be an issue for North Alabama's offense. This game should be competitive early, but the Govs get the big UAC road win in Florence.
No. 11 Lehigh 35, Villanova 28
What happened to the Lehigh defense last weekend? The Mountain Hawks suffered an unexpected loss to Cornell, allowing 48 points on the road, while Villanova has been an overall disappointment all season at 3-4 overall. I believe last week was just a bad performance from the Mountain Hawks, and I expect this defense to rebound, forcing Villanova to lean on Pat McQuaide, who hasn't been very good this year. Luke Yoder is the X-factor, entering the game with 956 rushing yards and 13 TDs, which leads the Patriot League. I like Lehigh to get the road win over the Wildcats, who just haven't shown up against good teams all year long.
No. 15 Harvard 31, Princeton 21
Princeton is quietly sitting at 4-1 overall and 2-0 in conference play, and now has a chance to knock off the defending champions on the road. The Tigers have leaned on a stout defense and solid run game behind Kai Honda, but I worry that they don't have enough firepower to stop this Harvard offense, which has found its stride with Charlie Smith and Nathan Bailey. I'm also concerned that Harvard's stingy defense will be able to take advantage of an inconsistent Princeton passing game.
No. 16 Lamar 27, Houston Christian 20
Nobody saw Houston Christian emerging as a contender in the Southland, but the Huskies are 3-1 against the FCS, including a ranked win over SLU in Week 0. They can really solidify themselves as a potential at-large contender with a win here, but Lamar is going to be motivated to rebound after an upset loss to SLU last weekend. I have a bit more trust in Lamar's rushing attack, which features two explosive weapons in Jojo Uga and Parker Jenkins. Don't be surprised to see HCU keep this one close, but I like the Cardinals to get the rebound win.
Other Notable Week 8 Predictions:
No. 1 Tarleton State 42, West Georgia 21
No. 12 Tennessee Tech 31, The Citadel 13
No. 21 Northern Iowa 23, Southern Illinois 17
Colgate 17, No. 25 Richmond 13
South Carolina State 24, Norfolk State 21
Southern Utah 38, Idaho 35
Western Carolina 27, Chattanooga 13
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