XRP’s Price Struggles As Circulating Supply Expands

XRP is trading around 1.33 dollars, 62.5% below its January 2018 peak, while Bitcoin and Ether have largely surpassed their levels from that time. This underperformance does not mean that all its holders have lost money: it mainly concerns those who bought close to the peaks, while the increase in supply has diluted the value represented by each token.

XRP remains far from its January 2018 peak

While its capitalization has just fallen by 117 billion dollars, XRP’s journey strongly depends on the date chosen to measure its return. An investor who entered at a low price could have made a significant profit, but one who bought during the euphoria of early 2018 remains largely at a loss nearly nine years later.

Several figures illustrate this gap :

• XRP trades around 1.33 dollars ;
• Its January 2018 peak was near 3.55 dollars ;
• The token thus remains about 62.5 % below this level ;
• It briefly reached 3.66 dollars in July 2025 before dropping again ;
• Its circulating supply has increased from 38.7 to 63.1 billion XRP since 2017.

The situation contrasts with that of Bitcoin and Ether. Despite their decline since the record highs of 2025, both assets remain well above their peaks of the 2017 cycle. Investors who have held their positions since that period therefore show, on average, significantly better performance.

However, it would be an exaggeration to say that XRP has enriched no holder. Purchases made during market lows, particularly below 0.30 dollars, have generated high returns. The comparison mainly concerns a buying strategy at the peak of 2017-2018 followed by holding without trading.

The brief record in July 2025 also shows that some investors found a profitable exit window. However, its temporary character highlights XRP’s inability to sustainably maintain a valuation higher than its former peak.

The increase in supply dilutes the value of each token

XRP has a fixed cap of 100 billion units, all created at the launch of the XRP Ledger. The protocol does not issue new tokens by mining or staking. However, the supply available on the market keeps increasing as Ripple releases and distributes a portion of the XRP held in escrow.

Nicolai Sondergaard, an analyst at Nansen, explains:

The circulating supply has increased by 63%, from 38.7 billion in 2017 to 63.1 billion, while the total value of XRP has only fallen by about 3%. More XRP in circulation means each token represents a smaller share of an almost identical total value.

This distinction between unit price and market capitalization is essential. If the market capitalization remained stable while supply grew by 63%, the theoretical price of each XRP would decrease by about 39%. The price can therefore remain much lower than its former record even if the total value assigned to the network approaches it.

Oliver Carding, marketing manager of Tesseract Group, thus considers that the performance seems less bad when measured by capitalization. “In value, XRP has recovered”, he states. However, this collective recovery does not benefit former holders in the same way, as it is spread among more tokens.

In the 90 days preceding October 10, about 898 million XRP are said to have joined the circulating supply. At the same time, transaction fees have only destroyed about 44,800 XRP. The burn mechanism therefore remains too weak to offset the distributions.

Insufficient institutional demand and usage

The increase in supply alone does not explain XRP’s lag. Institutional demand remains much weaker than that observed for Bitcoin and Ether. ETFs related to these two assets have attracted several billion dollars, while XRP products have more modest assets under management and flows.

Trading activity has also declined after periods of euphoria. A drop in volumes limits market depth and reduces XRP’s ability to absorb new units put into circulation without price pressure.

XRP’s positioning also played a role. Ripple develops its use in international payments and strengthens its ecosystem with the stablecoin RLUSD. However, the token has benefited less from successive big trends in the sector, such as decentralized finance, NFTs, staking, or applications related to artificial intelligence.

Finally, the long legal battle between Ripple and the Securities and Exchange Commission fostered regulatory uncertainty for several years. Even after favorable advances obtained by the company, this period hindered access to the U.S. market and weakened the confidence of some investors.

XRP therefore suffers not from a single weakness but from a combination of supply dilution, weaker demand, and limited adoption of the token itself. A sustained rise would require purchases to absorb future distributions rather than relying only on speculative episodes.

DISCLAIMER

The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.