India: Can 'cockroaches' threaten Modi's political grip?

India's Cockroach Janata Party (CJP) may have anticipated pushback from the government after its first round of protests in July, but the scale of barricading and detentions that greeted its leaders in a fortress-like New Delhi on October 10 was unlike anything they had anticipated.

The CJP began as a satirical online movement after the chief justice of India, Surya Kant, referred to unemployed young people as "cockroaches" in an offhand remark. The name is an ironic riff on the name of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). 

In its latest round of agitation, they are demanding the resignation of the country's controversy-hit Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar, after more than 130 million names were reportedly removed from electoral rolls nationwide.

What happened over the weekend?

CJP founder Abhijeet Dipke, accompanied by co-conveners Ashutosh Ranka and Saurav Das, was detained from the plane in which he landed in the national capital on Saturday. 

Meanwhile, police were stationed outside the homes of several other faces associated with the movement, including social media personality Dhruv Rathee, who has nearly 20 million followers on Instagram.

In central Delhi, buses were loaded with protesters, many of whom were taken to far-flung centers, where they were kept for hours. According to local media, at least 3,000 people were detained across the city. 

How the government is handling the protests

The protests come as Modi marks 25 uninterrupted years leading elected governments, first in Gujarat state as chief minister and then as prime minister of India.

Ironically, "this celebration has happened at the time when he's politically at his weakest," Delhi-based writer Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay told DW. Mukhopadhyay is the author of Modi's 2013 biography "Narendra Modi: The Man, The Times."

He contrasted the government's current response with its approach in July, when thousands of young protesters took to the streets to demand the resignation of Modi's education minister over repeated exam paper leaks. 

At the time, authorities had used batons, detentions and pellets to disperse the crowds gathered in central Delhi, which had been on the streets for days. 

This time, authorities shifted to mass security deployments and preemptive action on a large scale. This included notices to those associated with earlier protests, transport cuts, the internet cutoff and airport arrests.

"The government has learned from its previous experience. They didn't allow people to sit at Jantar Mantar for any length of time, so it couldn't balloon," Pearl Pandya, senior analyst for Asia at global monitor ACLED, told DW. 

"What's worrying is whether this becomes a playbook for the future — that you are not allowed to protest in the first place," she added, referring to the government's decision to remove the 18th-century observatory Jantar Mantar in central Delhi from the list of designated protest sites.

Authorities, however, have announced three new designated protest sites in the national capital.

Mukhopadhyay had a different reading of the situation. "The scale of this deployment is actually a defeat for Mr. Modi," he said.

Mukhopadhyay argued that it was already a setback for the government if it was forced to deploy security forces on such a scale in response to protests from a completely new socio-political movement.

Why October hasn't matched July

Despite the momentum, the CJP has not been able to replicate its success from July, with the protests against Kumar being led primarily by opposition leaders and student organizations.

"Education was far more of a cross-cutting issue... the right to vote is still seen as an intrinsically political one, where it's the opposition versus the BJP," Pandya said. 

The CJP, however, has long maintained that it is non-political. This is often cited as the reason for them amassing such a large following of young followers.

Mukhopadhyay criticized that stance, saying: "You cannot raise issues about electoral neutrality... without saying that these are political issues."

Despite the differences between the previous round of CJP protests in July and the current wave of demonstrations, sociologist Surinder Singh Jodhka emphasized continuity. 

"I don't think they're qualitatively different. Once again, young people are the ones who are mobilized, and they are much more encouraged because the earlier round of protests was successful," he told DW. "And it's also asking similar questions about institutions, about democracy, about transparency and accountability."

"There is a new hope for those who had earlier given up on India, and felt like the right wing was in complete control," Jodhka added.

Abrupt change of government unlikely

Dismissing comparisons with volatile protests in neighboring Nepal and Bangladesh, which brought down their governments, the analysts pointed to India's strong institutions as a safeguard against a dramatic change of government. 

"India has had a very strong state system and state institutions," Jodhka explained, highlighting that even the opposition parties were asking for "the revival of institutions, rather than an overthrow of the state." 

Pandya also stated that faith in the judiciary "would prevent these protests from tipping over into a popular revolution which unseats the government."

Nevertheless, she said, sustained discontent "might come to bite the government in 2029... or before that in the state elections."

It could also erode Modi's popularity, which has been a defining feature of Indian politics over the past decade, the expert indicated. 

For Mukhopadhyay, the most troubling aspect of the current protests is the erosion of the electoral body's credibility.

Recalling the pride he felt when he registered to vote at 21, he drew comparisons with young Indian voters today. "The youngsters are now fighting for their vote."

Edited by: Srinivas Mazumdaru