GLOBAL warming is projected to exceed previous estimates, with even the most optimistic scenario pointing to temperatures reaching 1.7°C to 1.8°C above pre-industrial levels by mid-century, according to a United Nations report released on Wednesday.
The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) said greenhouse gas emissions must be cut sharply and urgently to limit the overshoot, despite faster-than-expected growth in renewable energy and climate policies that are reducing emissions in many countries.
Global emissions would need to fall 18% from 2025 levels by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040 to achieve the best-case outcome, the report said.
However, current national climate plans are projected to reduce emissions by only 5% to 8% by 2030 and 11% to 15% by 2035.
Reuters reported on Wednesday that, under current policies, the world is on track for 2.8°C of warming by 2100, while full implementation of existing climate pledges would limit the increase to 2.6°C.
Both projections are higher than last year's estimates, reflecting the United States' withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and revised assessments of historical emissions.
As countries prepare for the COP31 climate talks in Turkey, UN Secretary-General António Guterres urged governments not to abandon efforts to curb the emissions driving floods, wildfires and other climate-related disasters.
“Overshoot is not surrender. We can still keep it as small and as short as possible – and bring temperatures back below 1.5 degrees by the end of the century,” he said.
Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries committed to keeping global warming well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
UNEP said limiting warming to 1.5°C without, or with only limited, overshoot was no longer considered achievable. Its lowest-overshoot scenario nevertheless gives roughly a 50% chance of bringing temperatures back to 1.5°C or below by 2100.
Achieving that outcome would depend on large-scale carbon removal, the feasibility of which remains uncertain, the report said.
Climate plans submitted since last year have made virtually no difference to projected future warming, underscoring the gap between countries' current commitments and the emissions cuts needed to meet global climate goals. - October 21, 2026