ANALYSIS: The ANC-DA national coalition will survive the elections, and could grow stronger

While the national coalition has never fit the definition of a “government of national unity”, the phrase has gained a certain currency. Whether it be the grand name or the convenient abbreviation (GNU), politicians within it like to use it.

Recent events have raised fears in some quarters that the non-GNU might be headed for extinction.

In the moments after last week’s Constitutional Court ruling allowing the ANC to include its previously disallowed candidates, the party’s secretary-general, Fikile Mbalula, suggested it was time for the DA to leave the coalition.

He based this on the fact that the DA had joined the case and argued that the ANC’s candidates should not be included because that was not consistent with previous rulings.

Mbalula’s real point is probably that he is offended that one part of the coalition would try to stop another party from fielding all of its candidates.

Mbalula was no doubt speaking to many constituencies when he made that point.

It is obvious there are people in the ANC who were never happy that the party’s leadership decided to work with the DA and would always have preferred to work with the MK party or the EFF.

This is one of the important reasons that the South African Communist Party has decided to contest elections on its own, with all of the significant consequences for its relationship with the ANC and the internal dynamics of Cosatu.

Mbalula was surely also talking to the DA’s leadership, sending them a warning that the ANC can live without them.

Perhaps he hoped this would put the DA under some pressure. Its candidates might well be a little more restrained in their criticism of the ANC if they knew their party could be removed from national power.

Maths and stability

In this national coalition, the only key relationship is between the ANC and the DA. This is not about politics but mathematics. Together they have a commanding majority in Parliament, making this the simplest possible coalition.

While mathematically the ANC has many other options, it is still in its longer-term interests to remain with the DA.

There are some who say they would prefer the ANC to lead a coalition of what are sometimes called “black parties”, but there is no other permutation that would be as stable as the current formulation.

The real glue that holds these parties together is their size, diversity and predictable structures.

Both the DA and the ANC understand their partner is a combination of different interests, factions and leaders. But they also know the other has a strong group of people who would be very wary of the consequences of the end of this coalition.

What was true in June 2024 when this coalition was formed is still true now.

It is dangerous for the ANC to work with the MK party or the EFF because of the nature of those parties. Both are structured around one person who makes all the decisions of consequence. 

Both of those individuals have betrayed the ANC in the past. And both have an interest in weakening the ANC as much as they can.

In the case of MK, even if Jacob Zuma were no longer its leader it is not clear who would take over. Would it be Tony Yengeni? Duduzane Zuma? Someone else?

And would that person be seen as legitimate by the rest of the party’s structures to the point where they could make decisions about the coalition?

It is true, as some have pointed out, that both current ANC leader Cyril Ramaphosa and Zuma might no longer be leading their parties in the next few months or years.

Considering the personal feelings between the two, this might make it easier for the ANC and MK to work together. But that doesn’t suddenly make MK safe for the ANC to work with.

It is likely that MK without Zuma would devolve into turmoil to the point where its leadership changes regularly.

It would be impossible to know if the person you are negotiating with has the power to make decisions. Never mind knowing what they would be like in government.

While there is an understandable focus on the leadership of the various parties, the current arrangement also suits the longer-term interests of the voters of both the ANC and the DA.

It can be forgotten that, generally speaking, voters for these two parties are “insiders” in our economy. They are more likely to have formal jobs and property than people who don’t vote, or vote for MK or the EFF.

That means the people who hold positions of leadership in these parties, from branch level to party leader, share those interests.

With MK and the EFF both promising radical change, these members of the current economic establishment have much to lose by working with these parties.

Implementing most of the promises of either of these radical parties would, in the end, threaten the economic interests of DA and ANC voters.

Potential growth

In the shorter term the burning question in the days and weeks after 4 November might be whether these tensions prevent the ANC and the DA from working together in a metro or a council for the first time.

Certainly the dynamics of local government, which involve the ANC’s local structures, are much more complicated than in national government. It is not possible for a very small group of people to just make a decision and force the rest of the party to go along with it.

Thus it might appear that the current temperature makes it impossible for them to work together.

But the temperature before the 2024 elections gave this impression too, and yet the ANC and the DA were able to reach an agreement after the polls relatively quickly.

The political temperature is likely to rise still further ahead of 4 November. The current national coalition will be tested during this campaign.

But the longer-term interests of the leaders, members and voters of the ANC and the DA make it likely that this coalition will survive this period, and could perhaps even become closer. DM