The Toronto Blue Jays invested heavily in their starting rotation, and one of their biggest investments won’t be providing much help next season.
Jose Berrios has two years and $48 million remaining on his contract. Unfortunately for the Blue Jays, the veteran right-hander will still be recovering from Tommy John surgery when 2027 starts.
For a team that struggled all of 2026 after making it all the way to World Series in 2025, Berrios is an expensive uncertainty.
Toronto’s troubles started early in the year and just kept increasing as time went on. For Berrios the bad news happened in May. He underwent surgery on May 20 and faces a recovery time of 12 to 18 months. That puts his return at some time late in the 2027 season.
There’s also no guarantee he will even be able to contribute before the 2027 season is over.
Now, Toronto is facing another season without being able to count on one of their most dependable pitchers on the roster.
Berrios Contract Creates Unusual Situation
When Berrios came to Toronto in 2021, he signed a seven-year $131 million extension.
It is highly unlikely that Berrios will exercise the opt-out clause in his contract. He could do that following the 2026 season, according to his contract, but he won’t. It would mean walking away from a $48 million guarantee over the next two years.
Considering there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding his play in 2027, Toronto looks like the obvious choice for Berrios.
That leaves the Blue Jays holding the $24 million bill for each of the next two seasons, regardless of how Berrios recovers or how long it takes.
For Toronto, it is especially frustrating given how durable he has been over the past several seasons. He routinely made more than 30 starts per season.
He was so important to the team, he was the Toronto Opening Day starter three times. Now, he will sit on the sidelines for possibly two years of his contract.
Blue Jays Must Move Forward
Toronto already has Dylan Cease, Trey Yesavage and Jose Soriano ready to anchor the rotation into 2027.
Cody Ponce should return from knee surgery, while Spencer Arrighetti and other pitchers are primed and ready to compete for spots.
The Blue Jays have also learned a very important lesson about pitching depth.
Going into 2026, the team thought they were ready in the pitching department. Then injuries took over. The once formidable rotation was whittled down and the organization was forced to rely on unexpected contributors.
That’s what makes the uncertainty surrounding Berrios that much more important.
Toronto cannot expect Berrios to come back, and they cannot build around any assumption that does. Even if he comes back, he will have to build back to his previous workload.
The team will have to establish a dependable rotation without him involved in any way.
There are also two other issues here: Shane Bieber and Max Scherzer. Both are available on free agency, and no one knows what Scherzer’s plan is just yet.
Toronto Has Expensive Decision
Berrios has provided several seasons of valuable innings for Toronto. His reliability was a large part of the reason the organization committed to him long-term.
The contract he holds was certainly warranted and provided a lot of value to the team, but the situation has changed. Now, the Blue Jays are holding an expensive contract for a pitcher who likely won’t be able to contribute until 2028. That will be the final year of his contract, when more decisions will have to be made.
There is certainly still hope and belief that Berrios will return and become a productive part of the rotation. Toronto just cannot build a rotation or make offseason decisions based on that belief.
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