Every week in college football, there are a couple of totals that get priced off a team's reputation instead of what it's actually doing on the field. This week, two of them stand out.
Air Force is a five-point favorite at Wyoming on Friday night, and the total sits in the mid-40s because, well, it's Air Force. The clock runs, nobody throws and the game is over before you know it. Then there's No. 16 USC, a three-point favorite at Wisconsin on Saturday night, where the total has been bet down from 52.5 after the Badgers scored seven points at UCLA last week. I think both numbers are too low.
Air Force (-5, 45.5) at Wyoming
I get why the under is the popular read.
Air Force (5-1) runs the ball more than just about any team in the country, averaging 343 rushing yards a game, and it holds the ball for roughly 36 minutes a game. Over its last two games, the Falcons ran for 869 yards and threw for 18. That's not a typo — 18 passing yards in two games. Wyoming (4-3) coach Jay Sawvel knows exactly how this usually goes. "In the last nine times that we've played Air Force, if they have four drives of eight-or-more plays, we've only won one game," he said this week. But slow doesn't mean scoreless.
Air Force lost starting QB Liam Szarka for the season in the 14-9 win over Navy, and the offense has actually been better since. They're also 13-of-15 on fourth down, which is how those long drives end in touchdowns instead of punts, and our deserved-points model says they've earned every bit of that 5-1 record.
The bigger reason I like the over is the other side of the ball. Air Force's defense ranks No. 103 on our board and has given up 38 points to North Dakota State, 33 at Nevada and 31 to UNLV. Meanwhile, this Wyoming offense looks nothing like the one that scored 13 at Colorado State in the opener. QB Tyler Hughes ran for a career-high 183 yards and four touchdowns last week against Northern Illinois, the most rushing yards by a Wyoming quarterback since 2021, and the Cowboys hung 41. And he did it without starting running back Samuel Harris, who's expected back Friday.
Bet Air Force-Wyoming to go over the total at sportsbooks
We make this Air Force 27, Wyoming 22, and SP+ is on the over as well at 28-20. The market has already started moving our way, from 42.5 at DraftKings to 45.5 at most books, but Hard Rock is still sitting at 44.5. The forecast calls for low 50s and some wind in Laramie, which doesn't worry me much in a game where one team threw for 18 yards in its last two.
Everybody knows Air Force is going to run it 60 times. I just think more of those carries end in the end zone than this number expects.
Bet: Over 44.5 (-105)
No. 16 USC (-3, 50.5) at Wisconsin
I understand the under here, too.
Wisconsin (4-2) was shut out in the first half at UCLA last week, QB Colton Joseph went 6-of-16 for 66 yards and the Badgers lost 17-7 to a team starting its backup quarterback. The defense is legit (No. 17 on our board), and it held Michigan State to three points and won at Penn State. And the early money agrees with you: DraftKings opened this total at 52.5 and it's down to 50.5.
My issue is the other sideline. USC (6-1) has the No. 1 offense on our board and hasn't scored fewer than 25 points in a game all season. QB Jayden Maiava has 2,045 passing yards, 18 touchdowns and just three interceptions, and in his last game he threw for 301 yards and three scores at Penn State in front of the biggest crowd in Beaver Stadium history. Even Luke Fickell is giving the Trojans their due. "They have thrown the ball exceptionally well," he said this week. And this is a Wisconsin defense that just let UCLA's backup, Ty Dieffenbach, throw for 264 yards in his first start.
Wisconsin doesn't need to be great for this to go over. It just needs to be normal, and the UCLA game wasn't normal. The Badgers got flagged four times on their second drive alone, cut it to 10-7 on a Joseph touchdown run, then lost a safety to a targeting ejection on UCLA's next scoring drive and had a fourth-down conversion overturned on review. That's a team that beat itself as much as anything.
Two weeks before that, Joseph threw three touchdown passes and ran for 141 yards against Michigan State. And USC's defense, No. 68 on our board, gave up 41 to Oregon and 35 to Rutgers. We make this game USC 30, Wisconsin 25. For the under to cash, Wisconsin's offense has to be as bad as it was in Pasadena two weeks in a row. I'll bet against that with a QB I see real upside in.
Bet: Over 50.5 (-105)