We listen to the presidential candidates explain what they will do when they get to Aso Rock. We listen to them explain how they will fix the economy, defeat insecurity, create jobs, reform institutions, reduce poverty and restore hope.
Then we go home convinced. But perhaps we are asking the wrong questions. Take the familiar narratives surrounding the major names in Nigeria’s political conversation.
For President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the argument is often about the trajectory of Lagos under his administration: the structures he helped establish, the political machinery he built and the Lagos experience that supporters believe demonstrates his capacity to govern.
For Atiku Abubakar, the conversation often turns to his long experience in business and government, his understanding of the private sector and his long-standing argument for economic liberalisation and privatisation.
For Peter Obi, the attraction is different. He is presented as the simple, prudent businessman who understands the value of money, who identifies with ordinary people and whose supporters believe brings a different philosophy to governance.
Then there is Omoyele Sowore, whose political identity is inseparable from activism, confrontation with the establishment and his long campaign against what he considers a failed political order.
These descriptions are not necessarily false. But they are incomplete. And therein lies the danger.
We have become so accustomed to political branding that we sometimes mistake a candidate’s political story for a complete examination of the candidate.
We ask what President Tinubu says he will do next, but how deeply do we examine how he behaved when circumstances were against him?
We discuss Atiku’s business experience, but what does his broader record tell us about his judgement, relationships, temperament and ability to build a government?
We celebrate Obi’s simplicity and financial prudence, but how do those qualities translate when presidential decisions involve competing interests, political resistance and institutions that cannot simply be managed through personal discipline?
We admire Sowore’s activism, but can activism, by itself, answer the enormous questions of governing a complex federation?
That is where the Nigerian voter must become more sophisticated. A presidential election is not an interview competition. A candidate can perform brilliantly in an interview and still struggle with the machinery of government.
Because the presidency is not operated by one man. It is operated through ministers, advisers, lawmakers, governors, security agencies, civil servants, political allies, technocrats, institutions and an enormous network of interests.
And sometimes, the biggest threat to a president’s agenda may not be the opposition. It may be the people sitting closest to him.
What happens when the president has a good idea but his ministers are incompetent? What happens when political allies demand favours that contradict the president’s promises? What happens when the National Assembly resists a reform? What happens when the economy suddenly behaves differently from the assumptions in the manifesto?
What happens when insecurity changes form? What happens when the people the president trusted become the very people frustrating his government? These are the questions campaign interviews rarely answer.
Instead, candidates tell us what they will do. But government is where promises meet obstacles. And obstacles are guaranteed.
This is why Nigerians must stop choosing presidents primarily through slogans, sentiments, ethnic calculations, religious attachment, personality cults or carefully manufactured political images.
We must investigate antecedents. We must examine records. We must study decisions. We must examine relationships. We must ask how a candidate treats people who cannot help him.
We must examine what happens when he loses. We must examine how he responds to criticism. We must examine whether he surrounds himself with people who can challenge him or merely people who praise him.
Most importantly, we must ask what happens when the plan fails, because every candidate has a plan.
The real difference between a politician and a statesman may emerge when the plan encounters reality. It is easy to say, “I will fix Nigeria.”
The harder question is: How will you fix Nigeria when the people who control the machinery of implementation disagree with you? That is the conversation Nigerians should be having.
Not simply, “Tinubu made Lagos.”, “Atiku is a businessman.”, “Obi is prudent and close to the people.”, “Sowore is an activist.”
Those may be pieces of the puzzle. They are not the whole picture. And perhaps this explains why yesterday’s heroes sometimes become today’s villains.
Many Nigerians once placed enormous hope in Muhammadu Buhari. Many once celebrated Goodluck Jonathan. People believed deeply in them before they entered the realities of presidential power. Yet expectations collided with governance, and admiration eventually gave way to anger, disappointment and blame.
The lesson should not be that every politician will fail. The lesson should be that we should never fall in love with a political image so completely that we stop investigating the human being behind it.
The 2027 presidential race is already taking shape, with President Tinubu seeking another term and Atiku, Obi and others positioning themselves for the contest.
But before we decide who deserves our vote, perhaps we should pause.
Remove the campaign colours, tribal emotions, religious sentiments, social-media slogans. Forget, for a moment, who your friends or celebrities support.
Then ask one brutally simple question: If this person becomes president tomorrow, what evidence do I have that he can survive the realities of presidential power not merely win the argument on television?
Nigeria does not need another candidate who can simply tell us what we want to hear. Nigeria needs Nigerians who are prepared to discover who they are actually voting for.
And when the campaign is over, the microphones are switched off and the promises meet the hard wall of reality, it will be too late to say: “I did not know.”
Haroon Aremu Abiodun is an Author and analyst with a keen interest in governance and national development. His writings examine the institutional questions shaping Nigeria’s future, informed civic engagement and accountable governance. He writes via [email protected].