BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Friday, 16 October, 5:39 p.m. ET · Source: US State Department reply to lawmakers, as reported by Jornal do Commercio, Brasil 247 and ICL Notícias
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October between President Lula and conservative senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- What happened On Thursday 15 October, the US State Department answered Democratic lawmakers without promising to accept the certified result of Brazil’s runoff.
- The reply It backs “the right of the Brazilian people to a free and fair electoral process” but does not make the pledge the lawmakers asked for.
- Moraes The department also defended its past measures against Supreme Court justice Alexandre de Moraes, citing “documented evidence of serious human rights violations”.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.3% chance of winning the 25 October runoff (16 October, 5:37 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 76% and Kalshi at 76% (Lula: 24% and 23%), as of 16 October, 5:40 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- Still open The reply does not say what Washington would do if Brazil’s electoral court (TSE) certifies a winner and the loser disputes it.
The US State Department has declined to promise that Washington will accept the certified result of the Brazil election 2026 on Sunday 25 October. In a reply dated Thursday 15 October to Democratic lawmakers, it said only that the United States supports a free and fair vote.
The lawmakers had asked whether the Trump administration would respect Brazil’s electoral process, as Brazilian outlets Jornal do Commercio and Brasil 247 reported. The answer matters to US readers because Washington sanctioned a Brazilian Supreme Court justice in 2025 and put tariffs on Brazilian goods.
What the State Department Wrote
Senator Bernie Sanders and 30 Democratic members of the US House wrote to Secretary of State Marco Rubio asking whether the United States would respect Brazil’s electoral process, Brasil 247 reported.
The department replied that it supports “the right of the Brazilian people to a free and fair electoral process”, in a Portuguese translation of the English text. It added that it will keep working with Brazil’s people, private sector and “the elected government” on security, trade and investment, according to ICL Notícias.
The reply did not give the explicit commitment the lawmakers requested, as Jornal do Commercio noted. It also did not say whether Washington would recognise a result that Brazil’s electoral court certifies.
Why Alexandre de Moraes Is Part of the Story
Alexandre de Moraes is a justice of Brazil’s Supreme Court whom the Trump administration has accused of abusing his authority. The US Treasury sanctioned him under the Magnitsky Act, a US human rights law, in July 2025, and removed him from the sanctions list on 12 December 2025.
Asked about those measures, the department said they rested on “documented evidence of serious human rights violations”, Brasil 247 reported.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.3% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula da Silva 23.5% (16 October, 5:37 p.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$184.8 million in total bets.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 76.3% · Lula 23.5% (US$185 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 76% · Lula 23%
As of 16 October, 5:40 pm ET (22:40 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
If you hold Brazilian assets, a US government that stays silent on recognising the result adds one more source of uncertainty around 25 October. Our Brazil election polls tracks every survey so you can see how close the race is.
If you follow US foreign policy, the reply shows Washington defending its past measures against Moraes while avoiding a pledge on the vote itself. Sanctions, tariffs and the outcome will all shape the next four years of US–Brazil ties.
What Is Not Known
The reply does not say what the United States would do if the loser disputes the result, or whether any US official will comment on the vote. We could not confirm the full English text of the letter, only the Portuguese reports.
It is also unclear whether President Donald Trump will address the runoff himself before Sunday 25 October. The reports we reviewed carry no comment from the White House or Brazil’s government.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Background: Brazil Election Results Put Lula and Flávio in Runoff.
Background: Brazil Tax Reform 2026 Replaces Five Taxes With Two VATs.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will the US recognise Brazil’s election result?
The State Department has not said. Its 15 October reply to lawmakers backs a free and fair vote but gives no pledge to accept the certified result.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October. The candidates are President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
Who wrote to the State Department?
Senator Bernie Sanders and 30 Democratic members of the US House, according to Brasil 247. They asked whether Washington would respect Brazil’s electoral process.
Why is Alexandre de Moraes mentioned?
He is a Brazilian Supreme Court justice sanctioned by the US in July 2025 and removed from the sanctions list in December 2025. The department says its measures rest on documented evidence of serious human rights violations.
Who is favoured to win the runoff?
On Polymarket, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro 76.3% on 16 October at 5:37 p.m. ET. Prediction markets are bets, not polls.
Sources: Jornal do Commercio, 15 October 2026; Brasil 247, 15 October 2026; ICL Notícias, 16 October 2026; Polymarket, 16 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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