China’s capital city is heading toward a major demographic transformation over the coming decade as its population ages at a rapid pace. Official reports indicate that by 2035, approximately one in every three residents in Beijing will be aged 60 or above.
- Beijing is experiencing rapid population aging, with projections showing one in three residents will be over 60 by 2035.
- China's shrinking population is putting strain on pensions and the economy, and the government is spending billions to encourage higher birth rates.
- In contrast, Africa has a very youthful population, which offers the potential for strong economic growth if properly harnessed.
- Experts warn that Africa's demographic advantage will only translate into growth if investments are made in education, healthcare, infrastructure, and job creation.
While Chinese policymakers are trying to boost birth rates, shifting demographics are reshaping the country’s economy, setting it apart from younger regions such as Africa.
However, despite Africa’s remarkably youthful population, experts warn that without the right investments and policies, the continent may struggle to harness its demographic potential and turn its growing workforce into a driver of economic growth.
China faces a rapid demographic shift as Beijing becomes super-aged by 2035
The government of Beijing is preparing for a major demographic milestone as its elderly population expands.
According to official reporting by the Beijing Daily, the Chinese capital recorded "5.29 million permanent residents aged 60 and above at the end of last year," accounting for nearly a quarter of the city's total population.
Looking ahead to 2035, official projections published by Brecorder show that "one in every three residents of the Chinese capital will be aged 60 or above".
On a national scale, China's overall population has been shrinking since 2022, creating broader economic complications as hundreds of millions of workers approach retirement while pension budgets face heavy strain.
In response, local authorities are increasing basic pensions, and central policymakers have placed population strategy at the center of national economic planning.
Estimates published by Reuters indicate that the Chinese government faces potential costs of "around 180 billion yuan ($26.92 billion) to boost births" this year alone to encourage larger families.
Demographic pressures in China contrast with Africa’s youthful population
China’s ageing population presents long-term structural challenges that contrast with the younger demographic profile of African countries.
As birth rates decline, China could face slower growth in the number of households and consumer spending, adding to the economic pressures associated with an ageing society.
In contrast, Africa’s youthful population offers an opportunity to accelerate economic growth, provided governments invest in education, healthcare, infrastructure and job creation. Without these investments, however, the continent risks missing out on the economic benefits of its growing working-age population.
Sarah Hague, UNICEF’s Regional Adviser on Social Policy for East and Southern Africa, discussed the challenge in an interview with Toni Karasanyi, who highlighted the importance of turning demographic change into economic opportunity.
“If we're not investing in them now, we're going to really struggle to be able to deliver on that demographic dividends in the next couple of decades,” Hague warned.
Craig Hammer, a manager with the World Bank’s Development Data Group, also stressed that Africa’s youthful population could become a driver of economic growth if governments adopt the right policies.
“This is an opportunity. With the right types of policies, with the right types of access to education and healthcare and infrastructure, the Sub-Saharan African countries can transform the number of young people in their countries into an engine for growth,” Hammer said.
Africa’s demographic opportunity depends on investment
Africa’s growing population is not, by itself, a guarantee of economic prosperity.
The continent must create enough productive jobs and ensure that young people have access to quality education, healthcare and essential infrastructure.
These investments can help equip the next generation with the skills and opportunities needed to contribute to economic development.
China’s ageing population and Africa’s youthful demographic profile highlight two different economic challenges.
While China faces the consequences of a growing older population, African countries have an opportunity to turn their expanding workforce into an engine of growth.
Whether they can do so will depend on the policies they implement and the investments they make today.