EXPAT communities across the Costa del Sol, Costa Tropical and Costa Blanca are among the areas where earthquake shaking could be ‘severe’ and reach intensity VIII or higher, according to Spain’s new civil protection directive.
At this level, people may find it difficult to stand, even outdoors, while furniture could overturn and objects may fall.
Many buildings could be damaged, with large cracks appearing in walls and chimneys falling.
Spain’s official state gazette (BOE) lists 34 municipalities in Malaga province, including Malaga city, Nerja, Frigiliana, Torrox and Velez-Malaga.
The list also covers inland Axarquia towns with established international communities, including Competa, Canillas de Albaida, Alcaucin, Sayalonga and Viñuela.
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Further east, the municipalities of Almuñecar, Salobreña and Motril are included on Granada’s Costa Tropical.
Alicante province’s list covers popular expat areas in the Vega Baja and south Costa Blanca, including Torrevieja, Rojales, San Fulgencio, Orihuela, Guardamar del Segura, Pilar de la Horadada, Los Montesinos, Algorfa and Benijofar.
Alicante city, Elche and Santa Pola also appear.
Some of the Alicante towns have particularly high proportions of foreign residents.
Figures based on the 2025 census put foreign nationals at around 68% of Rojales’ population and 67% in San Fulgencio.
Torrevieja has the largest foreign-resident community in the area, with almost 50,000 people.
In Murcia, the BOE names the regional capital and inland municipalities including Alhama de Murcia, Fuente Alamo and Totana.
The list does not include several well-known expat destinations on the Costa Calida, such as Los Alcazares and San Javier.
The classifications are based on seismic hazard studies by Spain’s National Geographic Institute (IGN).
Intensity VIII is described as ‘heavily damaging’ on the European Macroseismic Scale, which measures the effects of shaking in a particular place, rather than the earthquake’s magnitude.
The BOE notes that Spain has a long history of earthquakes, recalling events in Granada in 1431, Almeria in 1522, Malaga in 1680, Torrevieja in 1829, Arenas del Rey in 1884 and Lorca in 2011.
Scientists use a system called a return period to describe earthquake risk.
In this study, it means there is about a one-in-ten chance that, in the next 50 years, shaking in the area will reach or go above the stated level.
It’s called a 475-year return period because that level has an estimated chance of being exceeded once in 475 years, on average.
This doesn’t mean an earthquake happens regularly every 475 years or that one is due soon.
Being included on the list does not mean every part of a municipality would experience the same shaking, or that a damaging earthquake is imminent.
The assessment identifies places where intensity VIII or higher is considered foreseeable over the period used in the studies.
Spain’s Council of Ministers approved the directive on October 6.
Published in the BOE on October 10, it replaces the previous civil protection directive on seismic risk, which dated from 1995.
The new lists are intended to help authorities prepare emergency plans for people, buildings and infrastructure that could be affected.
The directive says people should receive guidance on what to do before, during and after an earthquake, and describes individual and community self-protection as an important part of emergency planning.
Residents should learn which alerts and instructions apply in their area, including ES-ALERT mobile warnings and local 112 or civil protection notices, and follow official advice on whether to shelter or evacuate.
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