MEXICO · HURRICANE
Key Facts
- —The country Mexico has a long Pacific coastline with resorts such as Acapulco, Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta.
- —Why it matters Pacific hurricanes can bring floods, rough surf and travel disruption to coasts that many Americans visit.
- —Why now Vance strengthened fast on Friday 23 October 2026 and briefly reached major hurricane strength.
- —What happened At 3 am Saturday, Vance held 110 mph (175 km/h) winds, 365 miles (590 km) from Acapulco.
- —What it means for you No coastal watches or warnings are in effect, but rain and rough surf are forecast this weekend.
- —Still open Whether Vance turns toward the Mexican coast next week or stays out at sea.
- —Power Index Mexico ranks 2nd of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 71.4 points (October 2026 edition).
Hurricane Vance, a Category 2 storm in the Pacific Ocean, was about 365 miles (590 km) south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, at 3 am Mexico time on Saturday 24 October 2026, the US National Hurricane Center said. No coastal watches or warnings were in effect, but the center asked people along Mexico’s southwestern coast to monitor the storm.
US readers have a stake because the National Hurricane Center in Miami, a US government agency, issues the official forecasts, and because American travelers visit Pacific resorts such as Acapulco, Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta. The center’s forecast keeps the storm’s center offshore through its five-day outlook, though it calls the track uncertain.
El Financiero reported on Friday afternoon that Vance could strengthen on its way to the coast and approach the Puerto Vallarta area by Monday. The hurricane center’s latest forecast instead places the center near 16.2 degrees north around midday Monday, well south of that resort.
In plain English
- —Category 2 A hurricane with sustained winds of 96 to 110 mph (154 to 177 km/h); Category 3 and above is called a major hurricane.
- —Watch and warning A hurricane watch means hurricane conditions are possible within 48 hours, and a warning means they are expected within 36 hours.
- —Rip current A narrow, fast current of water that pulls swimmers away from the shore.
- —National Hurricane Center The US government forecasting office in Miami that tracks storms in the Atlantic and the Eastern Pacific.
- —Conagua Mexico’s national water commission, whose weather service tracks storms for the country.
What the Hurricane Center Says Now
At 3 am Mexico time on Saturday the center of Vance was near 12.4 degrees north and 102.8 degrees west, moving north-northwest at 7 mph (11 km/h). Maximum sustained winds were near 110 mph (175 km/h), and the lowest central pressure was 965 millibars.
Forecasters said Vance briefly reached major hurricane strength on Friday evening and has since held at Category 2, with a ragged eye. They blame moderate wind shear, which is a change in wind with height that can disrupt a storm.
Vance strengthened rapidly on Friday, with winds rising from about 70 mph (110 km/h) to about 115 mph (185 km/h) in 24 hours, but its strength has since leveled off. Hurricane-force winds reach out up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds up to 150 miles (240 km).
Forecast Track and Strength
The center expects Vance to keep moving north-northwest at about 7 mph (11 km/h) through the weekend, with winds near 110 mph (175 km/h) on Saturday before a weakening trend that begins tonight. The forecast has winds easing to about 100 mph (160 km/h) by Sunday midday and rising again to about 105 mph (170 km/h) by Monday midday, because the storm may reach warmer water after about 48 hours.
By 0600 UTC on Tuesday 27 October (midnight Monday night in Mexico) the center is forecast near 16.6 degrees north and 104.3 degrees west, about 170 miles (270 km) south of Manzanillo by our calculation. The five-day outlook places it near 18.5 degrees north and 104.5 degrees west at 0600 UTC on Thursday 29 October, with winds near 70 mph (110 km/h).
Forecast confidence falls after about a day and a half, and the center says the guidance differs on how far north the storm will go. A weaker storm could be steered west-northwestward, while a stronger one would be more likely to keep heading north toward the southwestern or west-central coast of Mexico.
Track errors have averaged about 100 nautical miles on day four and 125 nautical miles on day five, the center notes. That is roughly 115 and 145 miles (185 and 230 km), more than the gap of about 40 miles (60 km) that we estimate between the Thursday outlook point and the Colima coast.
Mexico’s Preparations and Warnings
Mexico’s water commission, Conagua, forecast on Friday heavy rain of 25 to 50 millimeters (1 to 2 inches) in Michoacán and along the Guerrero coast, with showers of 5 to 25 millimeters (0.2 to 1 inch) in Oaxaca. It also forecast waves of 2 to 3 meters (6.5 to 10 feet) off Guerrero, as Sin Embargo and Crónica reported.
Mexico’s national civil protection office urged coastal residents to stay away from beaches and high surf and not to cross flooded streets, rivers or streams. A Sin Embargo headline says ports have been closed, but the report does not say which ones, so we cannot confirm any closure.
Swells and Rip Currents This Weekend
The hurricane center says swells from Vance will affect the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico this weekend and continue into next week. It warns they are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
That risk exists even though the storm center is still hundreds of miles offshore, because the waves travel ahead of the storm. The center advises people to consult their local weather office, which in Mexico means Conagua’s national weather service.
What It Means for You
Travelers booked to Acapulco, Manzanillo or Puerto Vallarta should check airline and hotel notices, because Conagua forecasts rain and high surf for parts of the Pacific coast even without a direct hit. No watches or warnings were in effect at the latest bulletin, and the sources reviewed do not mention airport closures or flight cancellations.
For earlier storms this season, see our Puerto Vallarta Hurricane Update for Travelers on 13 October and Hurricane Polo Peaked at Category 5, Hit Mexico Twice. Our Puerto Vallarta city guide covers the resort for visitors and residents.
For the wider picture, our guides Mexico Economy 2026 Outlook and Who Dominates Mexico, Elites and Regions Explained explain the economy and the regions the storm could touch. Both guides give background on the country and its regions.
What Is Not Known
It is not known whether the track will bend toward the coast, because the guidance differs and the center’s confidence falls after about a day and a half. It is also not known how strong Vance will be next week, since the forecast allows both weakening and a second round of strengthening.
This article rests on the 3 am Mexico time bulletin, advisory 12, and newer advisories may change the category and the track. The next full advisory is due at 9 am Mexico time (11 am ET) on Saturday 24 October.
The coverage reviewed shows no damage, injuries or evacuation orders so far. Reports that the storm could approach Puerto Vallarta by Monday are not supported by the hurricane center’s latest track.
Frequently Asked Questions
Where is Hurricane Vance now?
At 3 am Mexico time on Saturday 24 October, the center was about 365 miles (590 km) south-southwest of Acapulco. It was moving north-northwest at 7 mph (11 km/h).
How strong is Hurricane Vance?
Vance had sustained winds near 110 mph (175 km/h), which is Category 2. It briefly reached major hurricane strength on Friday evening before weakening.
Will Hurricane Vance hit Mexico?
The National Hurricane Center’s five-day forecast keeps the center offshore, but it calls the track uncertain. A stronger storm would be more likely to keep heading north toward the coast.
Are there hurricane warnings in Mexico?
No coastal watches or warnings were in effect at the 3 am Mexico time bulletin. Interests along the southwestern coast were asked to monitor the storm.
Is Hurricane Vance a danger to the United States?
None of the sources reviewed mention a US threat, and the forecast track stays off Mexico’s Pacific coast. The National Hurricane Center in Miami continues to issue advisories on the storm.
What should travelers on Mexico’s Pacific coast do?
Follow instructions from Mexican civil protection, stay away from beaches and avoid flooded streets, as national officials advised. Check airline and hotel notices before travelling.
Sources: US National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Vance Public Advisory 12, 24 October 2026 (0900 UTC); US National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Vance Forecast Advisory 12, 24 October 2026; US National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Vance Forecast Discussion 12, 24 October 2026; Sin Embargo, 23 October 2026; La Crónica de Hoy, 23 October 2026; El Financiero, 23 October 2026.
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error
The Rio Times · Power Map
See who really holds power in Latin America
Click to open the Power Map →