For Donald Trump, the greatest threat to the security of US democracy is not China, Russia, Iran, or even the Democratic Party he frequently brands “radical” and “communist”.
The President instead insists unchecked voting by non-citizens and illegal immigrants is the greatest risk to America’s most fundamental democratic process.
Trump has repeatedly blamed his 2020 election loss on widespread electoral fraud and since returning to office has launched a number of attempts to eliminate the issue, despite non-citizen voting having long been criminalised and evidence showing it is exceedingly rare.
In the build-up to the midterms, which polls suggest could result in a major humbling for Trump’s Republican Party, the Department of Justice (DoJ) announced it was investigating voter fraud in a number of states and has become embroiled in a legal fight with California over a request to withhold ballots.
However, those investigations are now in jeopardy after a federal judge found the DoJ was using flawed data to determine whether or not voters were eligible for ballots.
The ruling came as Attorney General Todd Blanche refused to rule out challenging the certification of midterm results, suggesting a “doomsday” scenario in which the DoJ suspected widespread fraud had occurred could spark legal action.
While, Blanche maintained it was not the DoJ’s intention to “improperly interfere” in elections, Trump’s fixation on non-citizen voting could see the court ruling used as part of a new push to undermine confidence in the midterms.
What was the DoJ investigating and what did the court rule?
In July, Trump made a national address, claiming the midterms were under threat from voter fraud and demanding states made changes to protect “election integrity”.
Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin subsequently went public with claims as many as 250,000 non-citizens had been listed on voter roles in California, Nevada, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania.
All four states expressed scepticism over the claims, raising questions about the data and methodology used to calculate the 250,000 figure.
The DoJ later launched investigations into non-citizen voting across nine states, prompting several lawsuits – including the one which resulted in US District Court Judge Araceli Martinez-Olguin ruling the probes must be halted.
Justice Martinez-Olguin found the data upon which the DoJ relied to determine whether voters were eligible to cast a ballot was flawed and could result in some being wrongly disinfranchised.
She also ruled the investigations were intimidating groups attempting to offer assistance to voters.
Despite finding against the DoJ, Justice Martinez-Olguin placed the ruling on hold until Friday in order to provide time for an appeal.
What do Trump officials mean by ‘doomsday’ scenario and what could happen next?
Separately, the DoJ on Thursday asked an appeals court to intervene in its tussle with California over claims of non-citizens having been provided ballots in the state.
Earlier in October, the DoJ sued California in an effort to have ballots sent to around 20,000 “likely” non-citizens removed from the count.
A hearing in the case was scheduled for next week, but lawyers for the department had demanded a ruling be made by Thursday afternoon.
The dispute, which stemmed from one of the DoJ investigations now halted by Justice Martinez-Olguin, has seen Blanche forced to confront accusations he and Trump were seeking to discredit midterm results.
Asked to comment on the lawsuit by reporters on Thursday, the Attorney General maintained it was justified and reiterated Trump’s determination to crack down on non-citizen voting.
Pressed on whether the DoJ could seek to challenge the certification of results in California, or elsewhere, if voter fraud was suspected to have occurred, Blanche declined to rule out legal action.
While he maintained “it is not DoJ’s intention to, and it’s never our intention to, improperly interfere with elections or the state confirmation process or certification process,” Blanche suggested a “doomsday” scenario would likely trigger challenges.
Given Trump’s insistence voter fraud has played a role in the loss of key congressional races in past, there are fears the President could use Justice Martinez-Olguin’s ruling, in addition to pushback from Californian officials, as cover to claim the DoJ is justified in halting certification in order to conduct unimpeded investigations.
With tight races underway in a handful of seats and Republicans fighting hard to avoid losing both houses of congress, successfully stalling, or preventing even a small number of losses by citing voter fraud could hand Trump a lifeline.